ISW reviewed the possibility of a crisis in the Russian Federation because

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reviewed the consequences of Ukraine’s armed forces attacks on Russian oil refinement plants, to note that this could lead to fuel deficiency in Russia, stimulate inflation and aggravate the country’s macroeconomic stability. He writes about this in his report on August 29th.

Thus, on August 28, the General Ukraine staff announced the attack of drones conducted by Ukraine security forces and the forces of special operations in Kuibyshev oil refinery in the Samara region. This strategic business with the annual processing of seven million tons produces gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and solvent. At the same time, Ukraine’s major intelligence department, along with the forces of unspecified systems, invades AFIP oil refinery to Krasnodar territory, which provides production of 6.25 million tons of oil annually and plays an important role in providing fuel to the Russian military sector.

Both businesses are of major importance for Russian military infrastructure, and their defeat has resulted in a significant impact on the economic situation. In response, the Russian government announced an extension of the prohibition of exporting gasoline to stabilize the domestic market. Similar measures have been used since 2022, but the final attack on factories has intensified fuel deficiency, destroys the market and contributes to the growth of prices.

It is expected that a crisis with fuel and the rising price of goods and services will increase costs for both ordinary citizens and a business environment. This will create additional economic pressure and will not eliminate inflationary spiral, the analyst report said.

Earlier, it was reported that in August 2025, Dronov hit Russian refineries of the Ukrainian military, along with planned maintenance of facilities, which led to the recording of losses in the country’s oil refinement industry.