Economists have made a forecast about the labor market in Russia. Expect pay cuts and job cuts.
Unemployment in Russia by the end of 2022 could more than double, and, for the first time in the last 10 years, exceed 9%. According to experts, about 2 million jobs are at risk. On Thursday, April 7, Bloomberg reported in connection with a March poll of analysts.
“It’s reminiscent of the early 90s, when reforms started in Russia and factories closed,” Evgeny Gontmakher, professor at NSU HSE, Doctor of Economics, said in a conversation with the agency.
According to the forecast of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation, by the end of 2022 there will be approximately 2 million jobs in the risk zone in the Russian Federation, and the situation is expected to improve only in 2023.
“At the same time, by the end of February, unemployment in the country was close to its lowest value and reached more than 3 million,” Bloomberg said.
Noted that the crisis in the labor market will gradually develop: instead of layoffs, companies, which are under pressure from the authorities, may begin to reduce salaries, transfer employees to part-time to work or send them on unpaid vacation.
“Open layoffs can be widespread only when sanctions are considered long-term. As a result, the rise in unemployment can be gradual, and the peak is lower than expected for an economic shock. of this size, “said Bloomberg Economics expert Scott Johnson.
So far, Russia’s labor market is “calm,” Alexei Zakharov, president of Superjob, said in a conversation with the agency.
“All we hear from employers is they will keep everything until the last person and they don’t want to fire anyone,” he said.
At the same time, the number of new vacancies in March decreased by 20% compared to February, and the largest sharp decline was in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Petersburg, the newspaper writes, citing data from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting. .
Earlier, Fitch predicted a record collapse in the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is expected to suffer more losses than the default in 1998.
Russia’s economy is heading into a deep recession – head of the IMF
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Source: korrespondent
