The media predicts major problems with Ukraine’s air defense

The Patriot air defense systems in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine will very quickly cease to be useful if the elected US President Donald Trump decides to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Kyiv must urgently find a replacement for them. Military observer David Ax wrote this on Wednesday, November 20, in the pages of The Telegraph.

Ax admitted that the Ukrainian Patriots performed well in this war, confidently intercepting the best Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles. But if Trump were to cut off US aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force would very quickly run out of Patriot missiles, since Ukraine likely has a very small stockpile of them.

Although the world produces about 1,000 Patriot missiles annually, including 500 in the United States itself, without permission from the White House, Ukraine cannot buy them even with its own money. Therefore, according to Axe, Kyiv needs a backup plan for air defense in case the Patriot missiles become unavailable under Trump. Moreover, this plan must not rely on any other missile system produced by the United States in whole or in part.

“There is only one European anti-aircraft missile system that more or less matches the Patriot’s capabilities and whose developers could, with some effort, circumvent US export restrictions: the $500 million Sol -Air Moyenne Portée/Terrestre, or SAMP/T , product Franco-Italian consortium Eurosam,” wrote Ax.

The analyst noted that the APU already has one SAMP/T battery and delivery of another is expected. However, Ukraine will need five of these batteries to replace all Patriots. And perhaps even more, if other types of American-made air defense systems need to be replaced.

But there is a problem here. No matter how few American anti-aircraft systems are, there are even fewer European analogues. Thus, Italy has only three SAMP/T batteries and is awaiting the production of 10 more batteries. France has eight older SAMP/Ts and has ordered eight updated batteries. The French expect to receive the first new battery in two years.

In addition, SAMP/T is likely to include some US-made components that will be subject to US export controls

“Ultimately, air defense in the age of Trump may be a problem for Europe as well as a Ukrainian one. If and when Trump cuts ties between the US and its NATO allies, Europe will need to figure out how to defend itself – and how to help Ukraine defend itself as well.” “Ax concludes, adding that Europe will need to build more air defenses quickly and independently.

It was previously reported that the United States is struggling to ramp up production of Patriot missiles supplied to Ukraine due to a shortage of a critical component manufactured by Boeing.