The receipt of income from the export of fuel, mainly oil, petroleum products and gas, is one of the main factors in the recovery of the Russian economy.
After losing access to Western technologies and major markets, Russia will never be able to return to previous hydrocarbon export volumes, either in physical or monetary terms. This forecast was made by experts from the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEI RAS), reports The Moscow Times.
According to their estimates, in the next 25 years the economy will lose 40% of fuel exports, and the income from it will decrease 2.8 times.
Foreign exchange earnings from the export of hydrocarbons, where technology and consumer goods have been imported for decades, from $315 billion in pre-war 2021 to $146 billion in 2030. And in 2050 will be only $114 billion.
Exports of oil and petroleum products, according to the forecast of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the middle of the 21st century will be a quarter less than before the war (167 million tons per year compared to 217 million) , and revenues from it fell 3.4 times – from $238.2 billion to $70 billion, which fell to the level of 1985 after Gazprom disappeared from the European market, will continue at 193 billion cubic meters per year, but will remain a quarter more lower than pre-war (. 259 billion cubic meters). At the same time, the economy’s gas revenues will decrease by 43% – from $76.3 billion to $43.3 billion per year.
Coal exports, according to the Russian Academy of Sciences, will fall more than 10 times in 25 years – from 208 to 20 million tons per year.
The receipt of income from the export of fuel, mainly oil, petroleum products and gas, is one of the main factors in the recovery of the Russian economy, experts from the Institute of Economics and Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences note. They recalled that rising oil and gas prices produced the “economic miracle” of Vladimir Putin’s first term as president.
By the end of the 2010s, hydrocarbon exports accounted for up to a third of Russia’s GDP. But in the coming decades, the fuel and energy complex will “lose its former role as the “locomotive” of the Russian economy,” and its contribution to GDP will decrease fivefold, the article says.
Experts note that the sluggish economic development of the country is fueled by unprecedented sanctions, which cast doubt on the possibility of fulfilling these duties.
We remind you that in 2023 Gazprom received a net loss of 629.1 billion rubles (about $6.8 billion) after a net profit of 1.23 trillion rubles (about $13 billion) last year.
The company, which suffered losses for the first time in 25 years, which became the largest in the history of Gazprom, began to sell its property.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.