Despite the nominal acceleration in the growth of the loan portfolio of Russian banks, its real dynamics are slowing down due to rising inflation.
Russia may face a “quiet crisis” in the economy as early as the second half of 2024, as the main drivers of economic growth – consumer consumption and capital investment – are under threat due to a possible increase on the key rate of the Central Bank, The Moscow Times reported on Monday, July 8.
This is the conclusion reached by analysts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP), which is close to the government of the Russian Federation.
According to experts, despite the nominal acceleration in the growth of loan portfolios of banks, its real dynamics is slowing down due to rising inflation.
“This is already a sign of cooling ahead,” the analysts wrote.
Thus, after a possible increase in interest rates following an increase in inflation, “borrowers with high debt burdens may face the inability to make payments on previously accrued debt using the method of -attract new borrowers.”
TsMAKP called the predicted scenario a “silent crisis.” The economic phenomenon will manifest itself in a modest increase in overdue debt in small loans and in a number of forced restructurings in large loans.
We wrote earlier that due to the increase in military spending, the Russian economy entered a period of overheating. The Russian Federation lacks qualified workers, the ruble is weakening, and the state’s economic sector is becoming less efficient and corrupt.
It was also reported that the media calculated the losses of the Russian economy until 2026.
Source: korrespondent
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