Vladimir Putin hopes to win Ukraine with the help of long-term, “creeping” offensive operations, the Institute for the Study of War believes
Ukraine and Russia are facing a “deadly summer” in which thousands of people could die, but neither side will achieve a decisive victory, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Russian pressure
It is now noted that the main task of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is to hold positions using Western weapons. An unnamed senior Ukrainian security official said Russia would likely continue to sacrifice large numbers of troops for small gains. He also argued that the aggressive country did not have enough troops for a major offensive in Kharkov, because moving forces there would weaken other sectors of the country. front
The WSJ writes that both sides are trying to strike deep to gain an advantage before winter. Thus, the Russian Federation attacks Ukrainian energy infrastructure and defense positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine is attacking temporarily occupied Crimea with long-range missiles.
“While Russia is still making some gains on the battlefield, it feels like the Ukrainians are hitting and moving and holding their own quite strategically,” said an anonymous senior US Defense official.
It was reported that the Russian army was able to compensate for the losses as a result of the replenishment of personnel, but now the progress of the invaders is slow and predictable.
The WSJ noted that it remains an uncertain question for Ukrainian strategists and Western advisers if Russia will try a large-scale offensive in the summer.
Putin’s tactics
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue their gradual advance indefinitely, preventing Ukraine from mount successful counteroffensive operations to ultimately win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces. Russia’s military command today prefers a series of offensive operations that bring only incremental tactical victories – rather than conducting large-scale and rapidly maneuvering offensive operations to achieve significant operational success, recalls ISW. They suggest that Putin and the Russian army command probably view this approach as a greater guarantee of success in Ukraine than large-scale mobile offensive actions. They also appear to recognize the fact that Russian forces will likely have to march toward individual operational objectives (which may include the capture of strategic cities) over months, if not years.
Putin likely hopes that the slow advance of his troops into Ukraine, which could take months, if not years, will convince the West that military victory over Russia is impossible and that the loss of some territory is better than the complete defeat of Ukraine.
Source: korrespondent
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