The next seven days will see the EU summit in Brussels, the G7 meeting in Germany and the most important NATO summit in Madrid.
Europe is going through the biggest war since World War II, but faced it without anyone speaking for the continent. Angela Merkel is not perfect in this role. It is responsible for the fact that the EU has become dependent on energy in Russia, and he got convenient levers of pressure in Europe, he is responsible for calming the aggressor, which led to a new attack on Ukraine. But Merkel is a great crisis manager – when necessary, she can sit down with EU leaders and find a common solution.
What happens after that?
Macron’s hope
Angela Merkel left the political arena last fall, and the hope of getting her the crown of de facto EU leader is cherished by Emmanuel Macron.
But Macron was never satisfied with the undisputed authority in Brussels.
In many countries, especially those geographically closer to Russia (such as Poland and the Baltic states), Macron is seen as very attractive to the Kremlin.
In early June, the leaders of these countries responded with caution, if not anger, to his call not to embarrass Vladimir Putin, to let him save a face to leave room for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Scholz is not the same
Olaf Scholz, who succeeded Merkel as head of the richest country in Europe, has sadly failed to lead the EU in dealing with the crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yes, he launched major domestic reforms, promising to modernize and invest in Germany’s military for the first time since World War II. It took a lot of courage to do something like this, how much the Germans felt about their history.
But look at how sad the picture of Scholz’s local popularity ratings is, or ask his EU colleagues: did Mr. Chancellor take advantage of the moment? No.
From the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it seemed that events continued to shock him and he was afraid to take the lead. His slowness in arms supplies to Ukraine is an example.
Poland and the Baltic States
Poland’s voice – like the voices of the three Baltic countries – is becoming stronger in both Brussels and NATO.
Now they, the states that share a common geography and history with Russia, are becoming the new leaders and driving force in the EU – and this is a direct result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
These states feel that their views have finally been heard and respected – after years of rejecting warnings that the West is heading straight into a security crisis because of the Kremlin’s actions.
Conflicts due to war
As Russia continues to engage in military aggression, it will become more difficult to maintain unity of opinion within the EU and a wider range of Western coalition countries.
For example, there is disagreement among Western countries about what Ukraine’s goals are in this war.
Yes, the Western powers agree that Russia should fail in Ukraine. But what does this mean in practice?
Officially, of course, the allies will say that Ukraine itself must decide what its military activities are. But for Ukraine, specific opportunities to plan military operations are directly dependent on what kind of weapons and how much the West will provide to it.
And here those states that are geographically closer to Russia (the Baltic states, Poland and most of the former communist countries of Central Europe) also use a more hawkish approach.
These countries want to teach Russia a lesson. They have almost the same stance as the UK, whose prime minister and foreign minister are more dull about Russia than the traditional EU leaders Germany, France and Italy.
Berlin, Paris and Rome have a different approach. They are focusing their efforts on ending the conflict in Ukraine. Not at any cost, of course. They sincerely support Ukraine and its military.
But many Western European leaders also have opinion polls in their own countries in mind. Voters fear that the war in Ukraine will escalate and lead to the use of nuclear weapons.
Rising prices due to the war have also caused concern. As well as a potential new migration crisis in Europe if people in the Middle East and Africa start fleeing famine caused by Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports by sea.
The US is trying to sit in two seats, balancing between two conflicting EU strategies in hopes of maintaining the unity of the Western coalition.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.