The situation at the front is the most difficult for Ukraine since the beginning of the war – and it could get worse.
The Deputy Head of military intelligence of Ukraine, Vadim Skibitsky, in an interview with The Economist, expressed some fresh forecasts for the course of the conflict. According to him, the situation at the front is the most difficult for Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and it can get worse.
When will the negotiations take place?
Vadim Skibitsky told The Economist that he sees no way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. According to him, even if Ukraine could push Russian troops back to the 1991 borders, it would not end the war.
According to Skibitsky, such wars can only end in negotiations, and now both sides are trying to take the most advantageous position before potential negotiations. Significant negotiations can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025, he believes.
During that time, Russia will face serious “headwinds,” the intelligence officer believes. Russia’s military production potential has increased, but at the beginning of 2026 it will reach a plateau due to a lack of materials and specialists. Ultimately, both sides may face a lack of weapons. But if nothing changes in other respects, Ukraine will be the first to be left without weapons.
What’s next for Europe?
“The Russians will occupy the Baltics in seven days. NATO’s response time is ten days,” said Skibitsky. Ukraine’s courage and sacrifice gave Europe a multi-year head start, removing the immediate threat for at least a decade. The question is whether Europe will repay this favor. “We will continue the fight. We have no choice. We want to live. But the outcome of the war depends not only on us,” emphasized the intelligence officer.
Russian plan
According to Skibitsky, Russia plans to apply a “three-level” plan to destabilize the situation in Ukraine in May.
The military factor is paramount, as it is still weeks before Ukraine receives the US military aid recently approved by Congress.
The second factor is a disinformation campaign in Ukraine aimed at undermining the mobilization and political legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky, whose presidential term theoretically ends on May 20. Although the Constitution of Ukraine clearly states that during war the powers of the head of state are extended for an indefinite period.
The third part of the plan, according to Skibitsky, is Russia’s campaign to isolate Ukraine from the rest of the world.
Situation ahead
The city of Chasov Yar is of particular concern to Ukraine today, as its capture will open the way for the Russians to the last uninhabited cities of the Donetsk region. According to Skibitsky, it is likely only a matter of time before Chasov Yar is captured and the city falls in the same way as Avdeevka, which was completely bombarded by Russian troops in February.
“Not today and not tomorrow, of course, but everything depends on our reserves and supplies,” said the general. He admitted that Ukraine is far from stabilizing the situation, and Russia is using everything it can to achieve its goals.
The Russian army will not be the same in 2022, and now operates as “a single organism, with a clear plan and under a single command,” Skibitsky said.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.