Russia is likely to achieve significant tactical gains in the coming weeks, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not receive American assistance, but is unlikely to be able to break through Ukrainian defenses.
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As analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write in their review, in the coming weeks, while Ukraine waits for American aid to arrive at the front, Russian troops are likely to achieve significant tactical gains, but are unlikely to be able to break Ukrainian defenses.
U.S. assistance would allow Ukrainian troops to address material shortages and slow down ongoing Russian offensive operations, while Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and strengthening positions as they await the arrival of U.S. aid.
Russian forces have the opportunity to make significant tactical gains in the Avdeevka area and achieve the operationally significant goal of capturing Vremya Yar, but neither of these attempts is likely to develop into an operationally significant front breakthrough in the near term, let alone cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defense line in the Donetsk region.
As ISW analysts note, this summer, better equipped Ukrainian forces will be able to prevent operationally important breakthroughs in time for Russia’s expected summer offensive actions. However, Russian troops will still pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer.
At the same time, the Russians lack modern and effective equipment that they can and will deploy in Ukraine, and the overall combat effectiveness of Russian formations and units continues to decline. Russian forces rely in part on their quantitative advantages in equipment and manpower, and ISW analysts say this emphasis on quantity over quality has brought the Russian army a number of tactical successes and will continue to be relied upon by Russia in the summer campaign.
In addition, the Russians are gradually, albeit unevenly, learning from past operational planning mistakes. Most likely, the summer offensive will take place on a wider sector of the front. Russian forces have also significantly altered tactical air operations in Ukraine with the massive use of glide bombs, which will play a critical role in supporting Russian ground operations this summer, despite likely improvements in Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
ISW analysts note that the Russians are continuing large-scale technological improvements to their forces and are preparing to take advantage of technological innovations before American aid reaches the Armed Forces in full. However, at the tactical level, this technological adaptation has not yet been completed, which opens a window of opportunity for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In all likelihood, Ukraine will stabilize its front in the coming months and will be able to launch limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025, ISW believes.
Source: Racurs
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