The enemy may be preparing repeated large-scale offensives in some sectors of the front. In addition, the Kremlin is not giving up on its dream of capturing Kyiv.
Information about a new Russian offensive periodically appears in the media, but the situation at the front is worsening, so the invaders are preparing more than ever to try to enter a new area. Both the Ukrainian military and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny spoke officially about this.
The previous day, the American Institute for the Study of War had concretized these data. According to experts, the Russians are now waiting for the time when the ground will freeze, so they predict a new offensive at the end of January or the beginning of spring. Where exactly the enemy might try to attack on a large scale is beyond the plot.
East and south of Ukraine
As predicted by American ISWa. Now they await the time when the ground freezes. Experts also quoted Russian propagandists who wrote that the offensive should take place from January 12 to February 2.
At the same time, analysts, citing the alternative historian Sergei Pereslegin, assured that Russia does not yet have enough manpower to carry out large-scale operations. With available troops, the invaders could only conduct local tactical maneuvers, the Institute added.
“ISW continues to assess that, despite winter weather and terrain conditions, Russian forces will likely attempt to maintain or intensify local offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and maintain the initiative. According to ISW, Russian forces cannot bring out operationally significant breakthroughs,” said analysts.
Forecasts for the Kharkov region
Let’s recall that even before the New Year holidays, Western media reported that the Russians were considering the possibility of a large-scale offensive in the Kharkov region to create a 15-kilometer “buffer zone.”
However, Ukrainian experts, in particular, the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko, reported that such filling was just a cunning maneuver of the occupiers to divert attention from a possible operation specifically in the direction of Kupyansk. The Western media expressed the same opinion.
So, the British publication Telegraph, citing its source, wrote that Ukraine is allegedly preparing for the fact that Russia may continue a counter-offensive in the Kharkov region. Journalists even named the exact date of the attack – January 15.
Later, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate Andrei Chernyak did not confirm this information, but noted that the Russians are still conducting a certain accumulation of forces.
“The Main Directorate of Intelligence records a certain accumulation of enemy forces and property in the direction of Kupyansk. This may indicate that the invaders intend to intensify offensive actions in this particular section of front. At the same time, we cannot say that the Russians are preparing this offensive specifically for January 15 “, emphasized Chernyak.
March on Kyiv and landing in the rear
In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, said in December that he had no doubt that “the Russian military will go to Kyiv again.”
“The Russian mobilization worked. It is not true that their problems are so great that these people will not fight. They will fight. The Tsar told them to go to fight and they went to fight. I studied the history of the two Chechen war – everything is the same. Maybe they are not that good, but they still cause problems for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2-1.5 million people. The Russians are training about 200 thousand new soldiers. I have no doubt that they will go to war with Kyiv again,” Zaluzhny said in an interview with The Economist.
Let’s remember that yesterday’s report from the Institute for the Study of War also contains information that Moscow is already preparing air assault brigades for landing behind the defense lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as happened in the first battles for Gostomel airport on February 24. , 2022.
“These are likely to be helicopter landing attempts to rapidly deploy personnel. They will be used as another way to conduct debilitating frontal infantry-led attacks on fortified positions of Ukrainian in a short time,” ISW said.
Analysts add that this concept is not new for the Russian army, as similar units operated during the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan.
At the same time, military expert Alexander Musienko said that Russia today has no chance to repeat the scenario of landing from helicopters, as happened in Gostomel.
“Regarding Kiev, I think not. It is difficult to repeat such a landing. Because the mobile fire groups in the Kiev region are working very well, there are MANPADS, there are anti-aircraft guns, there are heavy machine guns. The way the helicopters fly and how they can fly, then they will all be noticed. This target is more convenient than a drone, than the same “martyr”. From the point of view of shooting, such a target is it’s easier to shoot, especially with MANPADS. So I think it’s not very realistic, because of the complex air defense system. If we talk about other regions, it’s the same there,” Musienko noted on the telethon.
However, the expert did not exclude the possibility of a rear landing on the front line. He said this is one of the potential elements of combat operations that can be used by the enemy.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.