In connection with disagreements over the provision of aid to Kyiv, European countries began to consider the consequences of a possible defeat of Ukraine in the war with Russia.
According to estimates by the Institute of World Economics at Kiel University, the amount of new Western aid pledged to Ukraine has fallen by almost 90% compared to a year earlier. Because of this, in the West one can increasingly find thoughts in the spirit of what would happen if Russia wins and Ukraine loses. Voters, influenced by pro-Putinist far-right politicians, are impatient with the war in Ukraine, and the West is back to appeasing Russia’s aggression, making the “what if Russia wins” scenario even more plausible. , wrote the Financial Times.
Nnew state?
According to the FT, if Russia wins, millions of Ukrainians will be forced to leave for the West, this time forever.
Or “an independent state can survive in western Ukraine,” said former British diplomat Peter Ricketts. “It could even join the EU,” wrote the FT, but it would not be immune from repeated Russian attacks, regardless of the agreements signed.
Global implications
Putin’s victory will encourage countries that are thinking of attacking their neighbors: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, and especially Russia itself. Carnegie Endowment spokeswoman Dara Massicot said that when the Russians thought they were winning, they “became overconfident and years later they were doing bigger and bolder operations.” The likely creation of a Ukrainian army in exile on the territory of European countries makes Russian attacks on these countries more likely.
As the FT notes, the Russian dictator has already created a war economy, the aggressor nation’s army has “updated its methods,” and the Russians have shown they are willing to endure even a full-scale war, so “why not continue to bite into parts of neighboring states?”
Bloomberg writes that the consequences of Russia’s victory will be felt around the world, as US partners and allies will begin to doubt the reliability of Washington’s promises of defense assistance. Bloomberg sources believe that the consequences of such a strategic failure will be more profound than after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
Alternative
The FT emphasizes that the West has an alternative to “surrendering Ukraine.” Russia’s economy is low-tech and no bigger than Canada’s. Europeans can help Ukraine fight Putin even if the US pulls back under Trump. In this case, Europe will need to rapidly develop its military industry, but the efforts it will require “will be insignificant compared to Russia’s efforts.” Europe will also need to replace American aid to Ukraine – according to Kiel University, 71.4 billion euros for one year and nine months of a full-scale war, or 40.8 billion euros per year.
“It’s 70 euros per year per NATO European citizen. We can find that kind of money if we want,” the FT article concludes.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.