Every day, Russia attacks the Donbass region of Ukraine with relentless artillery and air strikes, slowly but steadily advancing to seize the industrial center of its neighbor.
If Russia wins the battle in the Donbass, it means that Ukraine is losing not only its land but also most of its most capable military force, paving the way for Moscow to occupy more territory and dictate its terms in Kiev. Russia’s failure could set the stage for a Ukrainian counterattack and could ignite a political uprising in the Kremlin.
After a failed attempt to invade Kiev and capture Kharkov, the second largest city, without proper planning and coordination, Russia’s focus shifted to Donbass, a region of mines and factories where separatists supported Moscow has been resisting Ukrainian forces since 2014.
In the wake of past missteps, Russia has become more cautious there, relying on long -term bombing to weaken Ukraine’s defenses.
It seems to be working: Russian forces with better equipment have landed in Donbass in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, controlling 95% of the first and almost half of the latter.
“Ukraine loses between 100 and 200 troops a day,” Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the president, told the BBC, while Russia “has thrown almost anything non -nuclear in front.” President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier said the death toll was up to 100 per day.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksky Reznikov called the conflict situation “very serious” and described the ancient god of sacrifice: “The Russian Moloch had many ways of swallowing human life to satisfy his imperial ego.”
When the war turned bad for Russia, many thought that President Vladimir Putin could win after several conquests in the Donbas and then leave the fighting, which greatly affected the economy and increased its resources. But the Kremlin clarified that it expects Ukraine to recognize all of Russia’s gains from the aggression, which does not include Kiev.
Russian forces control the entire coast of the Azov Sea, the strategic port of Mariupol, the entire Kherson region – a major gateway to Crimea – and most of the Zaporizhia region, which will help penetrate deep into Ukraine and little is expected. Putin will stop.
Thursday bore a resemblance between the Ukrainian conflict and the 18th century wars in Sweden, led by Peter the Great. Now, as then, “our destiny is to go back and unite the historic lands of Russia,” Putin said. Moscow has long considered Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence.
Unlike past failures on the battlefield, Russia appears to be using more conservative tactics. Many expected him to try to surround Ukrainian forces with large fasteners from the north and south, but instead he used a series of small measures to force a retreat and not expand his supply lines.
Keir Giles, an analyst at Chatham House in London and an expert on the Russian Federation, said Russia was “devoting all its artillery to one section of the front line to clear the road and level everything.”
Western officials still value the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend their country, fierce fighting in response as well as reliance on artillery and retreat in certain sections and frequently launching counterattacks.
“Ukraine is pursuing a flexible defense policy, giving it a place where it makes sense to do so rather than restricting every inch of territory,” Giles said.
A senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the sensitive issue, said the Russian campaign “continues to cause deep concern at all levels” and noted that the Moscow’s force “takes weeks to reach even the most modest. those.” “Tactical objectives, such as capturing separate villages”.
Last month, the Russians lost nearly an entire battalion in a failed attempt to cross the Siversky River and build the bridge. Hundreds of people were killed and dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed.
“There is a sense of strategic improvisation or interference,” the official said, predicting that in the summer Russia’s military may reach “a point where it will no longer be able to build effective resistance forces.”
Russia had a clear advantage in the battle for the Donbass in artillery, thanks to a large number of heavy howitzers and the installation of missile and abundant ammunition. Ukrainians have to be frugal in the use of artillery, the Russians continue to aim at their supply lines.
Ukraine has already begun receiving heavier weapons from its Western allies, which have supplied dozens of howitzers and now plan to supply several rocket launchers.
Putin warned that if the West provided Kiev with long-range missiles capable of hitting Russian territory, Moscow could hit targets in Ukraine that it has so far defended. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said Russia could respond by seizing more land from such weapons as a buffer zone.
Moscow’s previous territorial occupations in the south, including the Kherson region and much of the neighboring Zaporizhia region, have prompted Russian officials and their local appointees to consider plans to make Russia the that territory or declare their independence. Donetsk and Lugansk are called “People’s Republics”.
Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have expressed concern that Moscow could attempt to invade the heavily populated and industrialized region of the Dnieper in the north, a move that could possibly divide Ukraine and pose a new threat to Kiev.
“Russia’s intentions in the context of this war are changing in relation to the situation on the ground,” said Eleanor Tafuro Ambrosetti, an analyst at the Italian Institute of International Political Studies in Milan.
“Their targets are flexible enough to adapt to the context on the ground,” he said, noting that Russia could try to destroy the Ukrainian economy by seizing the entire coast to deny access to ships.
Russia’s senior general has already spoken about plans to cut Ukraine from the Black Sea by bringing the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions on the Romanian border, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a ground corridor at the breakaway region of Moldova. Transnistria, where Russia has a military base.
Such ambitions depend on Moscow’s success in the East. Defeat in the Donbas would put Kiev in a dangerous position, new recruits lacked the capabilities of the fortified combat troops now fighting in the east, and the West’s weapons were insufficient to prevent potential more deep attack of Russia.
Ukrainian officials allayed such fears and expressed confidence that its military could stop Russia’s advance and even launch a counterattack.
“Ukraine’s plan is clear: Kiev is losing ground to the Russian army, trying to buy time for additional Western weapons supplies, including air defense systems, in hopes of launching an effective counterattack , ”said analyst Mykola Sunhurovsky from the Razumkov center. Think tank based in Kiev.
Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who served as NATO commander-in-chief from 2013 to 2016, warned about a ceasefire that would codify Russia’s victories on the battlefield.
“It’s like raising a 2-year-old,” he said. “If you allow bad behavior, or worse, if you hit bad behavior, you’ll get worse behavior.”
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Washington’s response was inadequate and when Moscow invaded Crimea in 2014, “the response from the West and the United States was inadequate,” Breedlove added.
Now that Russia is back for more, the West has another chance to respond. “How we end this war, I think, will decide whether we see more in the future,” he added.
Associated Press writers Lolita Baldor attended Washington, DC, Jura Carmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, Jill Lowles and Sylvia Hume in London, and Francis d’Emilio in Rome.
Source: Huffpost
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.