Russia’s attack on Ukraine has prevented the world from recovering from the covid crisis and returning to its previous pace of development.
The whole world is suffering from the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. Of course, the price our state pays every day is incomparable to some other economic losses, but the fact remains that missing opportunities around the world are estimated at at least 1 trillion dollars this year alone.
Forecasts
In their semi-annual forecast, the World Bank and the OECD club of rich countries have certainly changed their recent optimistic views on the prospects for the global economy and given it a new diagnosis: a speedy recovery could forget, and the dangers of immediate collapse. in another crisis is more real and higher than before.
“The world will pay a high price for Russia’s war against Ukraine. It threatens an economic recovery that barely started after two years of a pandemic,” the OECD report said. “Obviously, the poorest countries will suffer more than others.”
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has damaged the global economy, weakened energy markets, exacerbated food shortages and poverty in many developing countries,” World Bank economists wrote.
The World Bank now expects the global economy to expand by just 2.9% in 2022, higher than the previous forecast of 4.1%. The OECD cut its forecast even more – to 3% from 4.5%.
Forgotten percentages – one and a half growth – an enormous amount, because world GDP this year for the first time should exceed $ 100 trillion a year.
The world economy is cyclical: a boom is followed by a recession, then a recovery to another recession, and so on. Since World War II, the world has experienced half a dozen recessions, including the 2020 covid one. However, there is no time that recovery from a recession stumbles as quickly as today. The main reason is Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
The poor are getting poorer
Developing countries have traditionally become poorer than developed countries as a result of any global economic crisis, because they have fewer margins of safety and are more dependent on world food and energy prices, as well as rates of borrowing foreign currency to buy food, fuel, technology and equipment. Russia’s attack on Ukraine only hit them.
Ukraine is still suffering the most
Europe and Central Asia almost returned to a pre-Covid prosperity trajectory in early 2022. But then Putin’s army crossed the Ukrainian border.
“Russia’s aggression has reversed this recovery, and by 2022 the region’s economy will decline by approximately 3%,” wrote the World Bank, which in January did not expect a recession, but growth of 3 %.
The recession does not threaten everyone, but only Russia, Ukraine and 4 other countries of the former USSR: Belarus, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the World Bank believes.
Ukraine’s GDP, according to his calculations, will decline by 45% in 2022 and will not recover any time soon.
“The consequences of the war will be felt beyond the short-term forecast. It will leave deep scars on the body of the Ukrainian economy in the form of destroyed industries, burning fields, depleted human resources,” written by bank economists.
Russia’s GDP, according to their calculations, will decline by about 9% and even next year will not return to growth, but will decline by about 2% more in the context of the European oil embargo and the reduction in income, consumption, investment and imports.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.