Against the background of the war in Ukraine, Turkey wants to stay close to Moscow and Kiev. Can it act as a mediator, and what is President Erdogan’s purpose?
The next round of peace talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations took place on Tuesday in Turkey via Ankara. According to the Ukrainian side, during the talks, Kyiv offered Moscow a new system of security guarantees. Turkey is acting here as one of the possible main guarantors. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said after the talks that Russia would greatly reduce military activity near Kyiv and Chernigov.
Turkey supports Ukraine
It remains to be seen whether these agreements will be respected. However, this meeting is that diplomatic victory for Turkey – after all, there was hope for a truce of peace and a resolution of conflict. Earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that his country is not an official mediator, but is willing to create conditions to support the peace negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine. And even before the war started, Erdogan offered to act as a mediator in the Russia-Ukrainian confrontation, but then Russian President Vladimir Putin did not support this idea.
For Turkish expert on Russia Aydin Sezer, this is not a surprise. in his opinion, even before the war started, Ankara – despite close economic ties with Moscow – was on Kyiv’s side. “The Turkish government has made an arms deal with Ukraine and has always supported the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” Sezer told DW. In recent years, President Erdogan has repeatedly stressed that Turkey supports Ukraine and does not recognize the annexed Crimea as Russian. In addition, Erdogan acts as a defender of the Crimean Tatars. Ankara sided with Kyiv and, according to Putin, it was not independent – therefore, Erdogan’s proposal was rejected.
Between two seats or “active neutrality”?
From the beginning of the war, Ankara followed a more cautious course than ever before. President Erdogan calls this position “Active neutrality.” In practice, it means interacting with both sides, staying in touch with them and making no mistakes.
Beate Apelt of the Istanbul branch of the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation believes Erdogan was acting in a coercive manner. Apelt, who has long led projects in Ukraine, believes that Ankara has established good relations with both Kiev and Moscow. In relations between NATO and Russia, Turkey has also taken a special position. If, because of the war, Ankara needs to clearly define its position, Erdogan will face a dilemma, Apelt believes, because, on the one hand, Turkey is a member of NATO, and on the other hand, it is more dependent on Russia. .
First of all, Turkey is dependent on Russian gas. According to official figures, Turkey receives a third of the gas it needs from Russia. The first Turkish nuclear power plant in the port city of Mersin was built by Rosatom. Russia plays the role of the main consumer of building materials for Turkey – and the market for agricultural products from Anatolia. In addition, 70 percent of Turkey’s grain imports last year came from Russia. And about 20% of tourists visiting Turkey are Russians.
Close economic connections with Ukraine
But recently Ukraine has played an important role for Turkey. Last year, Turkey was the largest foreign investor in Ukraine with $ 4.5 billion in investment. According to Burak Pehlivan, head of the Turkish-Ukrainian Association of Entrepreneurs, about 700 Turkish firms were active in Ukraine before the war began. Bilateral trade volume in 2021 will be $ 7.4 billion. On February 3, Erdogan and Zelensky signed an agreement to bring trade to $ 10 billion a year.
In addition, Ankara provides Kiev with weapons, in particular, the Turkish combat drones Bayraktar. Agreements were signed between Kiev and Ankara on the supply of engines and other components for warships and drones.
Aydin Sezer believes that Turkey will continue to follow the course of its “active neutrality”. This is what Europe is enjoying right now, Sezer said. Hussein Cicek from the University of Vienna considers such a course a good decision and emphasizes that Ankara’s support for Ukraine means suppressing Russia’s political ambitions throughout the region. In addition, it will normalize Ankara’s relations with the West.
Source: korrespondent
