Putin is very weak. Consequences of Prigozhin’s rebellion

In the West, they are sure that the armed rebellion of the leader of the Wagner PMC militants Yevgeny Prigozhin showed the weakness and weakness of the regime of the dictator Vladimir Putin.

PMC Wagner’s rebellion in Russia excited the whole world. Now analysts are trying to figure out what would be the consequences of a riot that stops halfway. Most agree on one thing – Vladimir Putin and his power have never been so weak.

Shake the image

Bloomberg, citing sources, the publication claims that Putin ignored repeated warnings about the approach of Wagner’s armed fighters to Moscow, which “surprised his colleagues.”

Instead, the Russian leader allowed the mercenaries to become so close that the regional authorities had to use tanks and bring in the military for defense. “It is a rare case when assessments of an event in Moscow and in the West agree in many aspects,” the article said.

The US and EU also believe that Putin’s reputation and absolute power have taken a heavy hit. And the controversial deal with the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who agreed not to go to Moscow, does not mean a return to the status quo. Confrontation with the Russian government is far from over, writes Bloomberg.

“Of course, this is a show of weakness. This shows the weakness of the Russian regime, but NATO cannot interfere in these issues, this is Russia’s business,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

The war against Ukraine ruined everything

I think the events of this weekend only underlined how serious the war in Ukraine is for Russia, writes British analyst Timothy Ash. It was a disaster in every way: military, human, economic, diplomatic/prestige, and political.

“I have argued for a long time that Russia is not on the way to victory in Ukraine. The longer this war lasts, the worse it gets for Russia. In fact, the longer it lasts with all its negative consequences, the greater the risk of a ” boomerang effect” for Russia itself and the risks of political disturbances within it are increasing. What we saw this weekend. Even if Putin stays in power, he is now weakening. His authority is at the lowest level, ” Ash stressed.

Consequences for the front

“Ukraine will no doubt try to take advantage of the chaos caused by Prigozhin, but according to US officials and independent analysts, there are no defense holes that can be exploited,” the New York Times article said.

The material said that the rebellion of Prigozhin, at least according to the preliminary analysis, did not force a single Russian unit on Friday or Saturday to leave their positions in the south or east of Ukraine to stand up for Moscow.

“While the group is likely to be reformed under the control of the Ministry of Defense, there is no guarantee that the Kremlin will allow it to disappear as an effective fighting force. In addition, Prigozhin may have other next transfers,” said article.