3 Months Later, Russia Still Trapped In The Ukraine War –

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it hoped to overtake the country within days or weeks. Many Western analysts also thought so.

On Tuesday, when the fighting was in its third month, Moscow seemed to be sinking into a war that increasingly resembled a false war whose end was unseen and little victory on the battlefield.

The powerful forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin have not achieved a quick victory, there is no path that will allow the Kremlin to control most of Ukraine and establish a puppet government.

Instead, Russian troops sank on the outskirts of Kiev and other large cities amid fierce Ukrainian defenses. Columns of Russian armored vehicles appear to have been suspended on the long side of the highway. The army ran out of supplies and fuel, becoming only targets on the ground and in the air.

More than a month after the invasion, Russia has in fact acknowledged the failure of its blitz. And the withdrawal of troops from areas near Kiev heralded a shift in focus to the eastern industrial region of Donbass, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.

Of course, Russia took a significant portion of the territory around the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed eight years ago. He was also able to completely cut Ukraine off from the Sea of ​​Azov, eventually gaining full control of the main port of Mariupol after the siege, which prevented some of his troops from fighting elsewhere. While they were fighting with powerful Ukrainian forces Posted on a massive steel mill.

But the attack appears to have failed in the east as well, as Western weapons flowed into Ukraine to strengthen its army.

They have only made additional victories, which clearly reflects both the insufficient number of Russian troops and the resistance of Ukraine. In a recent incident, the Russians lost hundreds of staff and dozens of combat vehicles in the Luhansk region as they tried to cross a river to build a bridge.

“The Russians are still far from where we believe they want to be when they launch a revitalized effort in the east of the country,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Friday, describing the Donbas battle as very dynamic. , with small towns and villages .. Change hands daily.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, Russian forces are increasingly targeting Western weapons, ammunition and fuel depots, and critical infrastructure with cruise missiles and air strikes in hopes of weakening capabilities. of the military and economic potential of Kiev.

It appears that the Kremlin still has a more ambitious goal: to cut Ukraine from the Black Sea coast to the Romanian border, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a ground corridor in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region , where Russian troops are based. . Distributed.

But Moscow seems to know that this goal is currently unattainable with the limited forces at its disposal.

“I think they’re becoming more and more aware that they can’t do it all at once, obviously, all at once,” said Justin Kramp, a former British tank commander who runs Sibylline, a strategic consulting firm.

Moscow’s losses have forced it to increasingly rely on quickly built units in the Donbass that can only earn small, he said.

“It’s a continuous reduction mechanism of the small goal that Russia can actually achieve,” Kramp said. “And I think on a large scale, they really reduced their approach to match their capabilities on the ground.”

Many in Ukraine and the West thought Putin would spend his resources in Donbass to achieve a decisive victory on Victory Day, May 9, when Moscow celebrated Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II. Russia incorrectly called the war a campaign to “denationalize” Ukraine, a country with a democratically elected Jewish president who wants closer ties with the West.

However, instead of a massive campaign in the East, the Kremlin chose a series of tactical mini-attacks aimed at continuing to gain a siege by Ukrainian forces.

“Russia’s leadership demands the military command to show some progress and will do nothing but continue to send killing troops,” said Mykola Sunhurovsky, a military expert at the Razumkov Center in Kiev. tank.

Many in the West expect Putin to announce a broad mobilization to fill Russia’s ranks. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned that Putin could declare the day a victory.

But that didn’t happen and Russia continues to use limited force that is clearly insufficient against Ukraine’s defense.

Massive mobilization is likely to cause widespread discontent in Russia, strengthen anti-war sentiments, and bring political risks. Authorities opted for stricter options, with lawmakers drafting a bill that would remove the 40-year age limit for those wishing to enlist in military service.

The lack of resources was highlighted last week by Russia’s sudden departure from areas near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, which was bombed after the war began. Some of these forces seem to have been redeployed in the Donbass, but it was not enough to restore the scales on the battlefield.

“They really need to reduce the troops they have around Kharkov, just because they’re trying to capture the immense line with very few troops,” said Philip O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at St Petersburg University. . Andrews in Scotland.

“The fighting in the Donbas escalated into more and more artillery clashes and‘ it could go on for quite some time without much movement on the lines, ’” he said.

“So at this point it’s going to be a more positional battle,” O’Brien added, “and victory will be achieved by those who can take the blow.”

At the same time, Ukraine continues to receive a steady flow of Western weapons, including American howitzers and planes, tanks from Poland and other heavy equipment immediately sent into battle.

“Ukraine’s plan is simple and clear: destroy Russian forces as much as possible in the coming months, buy time to acquire Western weapons and train their use, then launch a counterattack in the southeast, ”said Sunhurovsky, of Kiev. . – Military expert.

He said Ukraine was hoping to acquire more powerful Western weapons, such as the US HIMARS multiple missile launcher, anti-ship missiles and more powerful air defense weapons.

The eastern impasse rebuked hardline representatives in Russia, warning that Moscow would not win unless it conducts massive mobilization and concentrates all its resources on one decisive attack.

Igor Strelkov, a former security official who led separatists in the Donbas in 2014, condemned what he called the Kremlin’s skepticism and said it could pave the way for defeat.

“The strategic frustration for Russia is deepening,” he said.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities are increasingly encouraged by the slow pace of Russia’s attack and the growing support of the West.

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated last week that returning to positions before Russia’s attack means victory, some of his collaborators have announced more ambitious goals.

Councilor Mikhail Podoliak said Ukraine was not interested in a ceasefire “until Russia is fully ready to liberate the occupied territories,” a bold statement that appears to show hope for the return of the Donbas and Crimea.

At the same time, it appears that Russia is aiming to overthrow Ukraine in a methodical blow to its fuel supplies and infrastructure and significant military victories in the east. The Kremlin can also hope that Western interest in the conflict will eventually disappear amid economic challenges and other problems.

“Their last hope is that in the summer we will completely lose interest in the conflict in Ukraine,” Kramp said. “They think the public in the West will lose interest like Afghanistan did last year.” Russia thinks time is working in its favor. “

Danika Kirka in London, Lolita Baldor in Washington and Yura Carmanau in Lvov, Ukraine.