On May 14, the first round of presidential elections will be held in Turkey – and Erdogan could lose them after 20 years in power.
There are elections in Turkey, but not everything is rosy for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Six opposition parties united and presented a single candidate to reject the current president, who, for more than 20 years in power, has only tightened the screws and concentrated power in his hands. Many publications, such as The Economist, call these elections the most important for the world this year.
Why Erdogan can lose
The opposition has a chance to succeed the first time. First of all, because of Turkey’s economic situation. For a president who once promised to turn the country into one of the world’s leading economies, this is a major failure. Moreover, the crisis in Turkey is man-made.
When the lira began to fall in the fall of 2021, the Central Bank, controlled by Erdogan, began to act on instructions from the president. And Erdogan’s views on monetary policy, as it turns out, run counter to basic economic laws and common sense. In the end Inflation has hit a record high in the past 24 yearsprices have risen in almost everything. And even some of Erdogan’s longtime supporters have turned their backs on him.
The second reason is the consolidated opposition. Six parties united to field a candidate against Erdogan. And the incumbent president continues to lose popularity to his main opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in public opinion polls.
Even after the election date, a double earthquake hit Turkey. And this is a factor that will also affect the voting results.
Corruption and nepotism, which flourished during the years of Erdogan’s rule, affected the extent of the destruction. Tens of thousands of people died, millions were displaced.
Erdogan blamed developers for not following safety standards when constructing buildings. Dozens of builders were quickly arrested. But the opposition says this is due to the current rules and widespread corruption, which means that the responsibility lies with the government and Erdogan himself.
The latest earthquake affected 11 provinces with nine million voters, most of whom have traditionally supported Erdogan.
Representative of the Opposition
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 74, has a reputation as an honest, calm but determined bureaucrat with a knack for spotting corrupt schemes. But he has no experience in the electoral confrontation with Erdogan, who has never lost a single vote.
To win the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes. The latest polls show that Erdogan is supported by 43.7% of voters, and Kılıçdaroglu by 49.3%. If these figures are correct, a second round is inevitable.
Importance for Ukraine
Throughout the last year that Russia’s war with Ukraine was going on, Erdogan personally tried to play the role of a mediator: he organized negotiations between the parties and continued to talk to both Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin , who essentially presented himself as the only leader who maintained influence on both sides of the conflict.
The election program of the united opposition says nothing about the war in Ukraine. But the opposition is determined around the world to change Erdogan’s policy. And there is a possibility that Ankara’s position as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev will also change. The opposition is very fixated on internal issues, on the Turkish economy and in general on what is happening inside the country, and not outside. The opposition is often criticized for making foreign policy an Achilles’ heel. This is unprecedented at all.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.