The Russian offensive has run aground, its achievements in recent months are minimal and do not justify the colossal losses.
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Analysts at The New York Times note that Russia’s winter-spring offensive in eastern Ukraine has slowed down significantly and has not lived up to the Kremlin’s hopes. Instead of the envisaged capture of Donbass, the Russians managed to capture only three small settlements. At the same time, they will lose a lot of personnel and military equipment in the Bakhmut, Ugoldar and Avdeev directions.
The publication’s experts believe that a breakthrough for Russia looks less and less likely. Regardless of the outcome of the battle for Bakhmut, Moscow’s inability to gain a foothold in the Donbas shows how little its offensive has accomplished and how hard its military has been able to capture urban areas throughout the war.
The Russian armed forces do not have sufficient combat capability. It looks like they don’t have enough ammo either. And they can’t replace junior military commanders in such a short amount of time,” says Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Virginia Research Institute.
Experts are asking to compare the real achievements of the Russian army with what Moscow hoped to achieve with its winter offensive: to capture the entire Donbass, containing dozens of other settlements, some of them much larger than Bakhmut. To do this, Russia would have to play and win battles of the same scale again and again as for Bakhmut.
A breakthrough for Russia looks less and less likely. Regardless of the outcome of the battle for Bakhmut, Moscow’s inability to gain a foothold in the Donbas shows how little its offensive has accomplished and how hard its military has been able to capture urban areas throughout the war.
After mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, the Russian army is no longer suffering from a severe shortage of personnel, as it was in the fall, when it lost a significant part of the northeast as a result of an unexpected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
But even with more troops and more firepower, Russia was able to advance a few centimeters at best, facing well-prepared Ukrainian positions, defended basements and buildings, and well-fortified defense lines from nearly a decade of fighting.
Ukrainians fought Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas for years before a full-scale invasion last February.
The current attack by Russian troops near Vuhledar ended in defeat after Ukrainian soldiers ambushed a poorly organized column of tanks. An attempt to seize the city of Avdiivka in recent weeks has not been successful, although Russian shelling is almost incessant.
A staunch Ukrainian defense has weathered wave after wave of Russian attacks aimed at cordoning off Bakhmut, once home to about 70,000 people. Losses on both sides are huge, but the territory that changes hands is negligible.
Russia is trying to succeed because it barely stabilized from losses in the fall before launching its winter offensive, Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia, told the War on the Rocks podcast last month.
The Russian armed forces do not have sufficient combat capability, Kofman said. “Looks like they don’t have enough ammo either. And it cannot replace junior management in such a short period of time.
The Russian offensive in Bakhmut was led by the private military company Wagner, which recruited tens of thousands of prisoners from Russian prisons in exchange for the promise of freedom.
The long and bloody battle over Bakhmut has depleted Wagner’s supply of prisoner fighters, forcing the company to use more of its professional recruits, according to Ukrainian officials.
Military analysts are skeptical that Russia can repeat its strategy of near-suicidal assaults on prisoners, which it used in Bakhmut, in any future Ukrainian city. “The Russian armed forces are not sufficiently combat-capable. And they cannot replace junior military commanders in such a short period of time,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Virginia Research Institute.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.