Will Putin deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus?

In 2022, the specter of the use of nuclear weapons in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine returned to the world. Since then, Vladimir Putin has turned his country’s nuclear sword on Ukraine and the West.

By doing this, the Russian president is trying to force Ukraine to give in to Russian demands and discourage NATO from intervening in the conflict.

Stepping beyond the threat, Putin on March 25 announced an agreement with Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons in that country, a new threat of escalating tensions.

In this situation, it seems that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, an attempt to save the world from catastrophe, is again under threat.

However, this statement is not new, but rather complements Russia’s repeated nuclear warnings since it launched this second aggression against Ukraine and the freeze on its participation in the new START disarmament treaty. For its part, the North Atlantic Alliance responded to this threat by reassuring that Russian nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible.

What are tactical nuclear weapons

Tactical nuclear weapons are used directly on the battlefield. It is a short-range, low-stat weapon that targets very specific enemy targets. Its range is reduced, to a maximum of about 500 kilometers, and with a “limited” yield of 1 to 50 kilotons.

Article 1 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, known as the NPT, states that each state possessing them “undertakes not to transfer nuclear weapons or other explosive devices to anyone.” Article 2, for its part, provides that each non-possessing state does so “without receiving any transfer from anyone” of the same weapons or devices.

Putin points out that this is not a breach of the treaty, as the weapons will remain under Russian control. This is probably true; we all know about the subordination of Belarus to Russia, but this is contrary to the spirit of the agreement.

From the previous considerations of the NPT, one can clearly see the desire of the parties to prevent the proliferation of weapons of this type. Failure to comply with its provisions “would greatly aggravate the danger of nuclear war.” However, Putin is unlikely to care about this fact, even if he is trying to send messages to society in order to wash the autocratic face.

WFD concept

Since the Cold War, the concept of direct memory access – mutually assured destruction – has been a factor in preventing a possible nuclear attack between powers. Nuclear weapons have changed the way war is waged: the danger of being defeated by a nuclear war has led to a certain danger of devastation. The missile crisis was a clear example of this fear, and therefore the value of these acronyms.

This factor is still active and brings us to the reality of the conflict, the great danger that the use of tactical or strategic nuclear weapons in a war entails. Having said that, and convinced that Putin is not going to use this suicidal tool, the big question is what he intends to do.

Reasons for the potential deployment of nuclear weapons

If we think that the possibility of mutually assured destruction will prevent a nuclear attack, then what reason does Putin have to continue his threats and deploy them in Belarus?

First of all, because not everyone reacts in the same way to certain consequences of a decision. When a wild animal is trapped in a space with no apparent way out, it may try to do so anywhere, even if it is dangerous.

The President of Russia, who intended to launch a quick operation in Ukraine that would allow him to achieve his goals in a short time and with virtually no losses, sees his loan run out after more than thirteen months of war and numerous casualties of the once all-powerful, or, in a lesser sense, degree, as we thought, the Russian army.

Putin continues to believe that his threats will deter others. He plays chess with the West, using the Ukrainian board to achieve his goals.

The use of any nuclear weapon, regardless of its power and range, implies the desire to achieve not only tactical, but also strategic goals; they overcome the efforts aimed at obtaining a partial victory in this battle.

By doing so, the Russian autocrat sends a signal to the West, NATO and the world: he is determined to keep – or run – forward until he achieves his goals. That is, until Ukraine is freed from the influence of Europe and the Atlantic alliance with the puppet government. The consequence of their absence will be the continued use of nuclear weapons.

western response

It can be foreseen that Putin will not use nuclear weapons because the consequences would be catastrophic. However, if an attack with such characteristics does take place, there is a danger that the international community, especially the North Atlantic Alliance (and, above all, the United States), will react. And the answer will be forceful in nuclear form against Russia. This would be an escalation of the conflict with unpredictable but tragic results.

Alfredo A. Rodriguez Gomez, Professor, UNIR – La Rioja International University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.