Ukrainian war. Avdiivka, the other Bakhmut that the Russians are trying to encircle

Surround, shell and conquer the surrounding villages. To capture Avdiivka in Donbas, 30 thousand inhabitants before the war, the Russian army uses the same methods as in Bakhmut, 70 kilometers to the north. Its position, which places it above Donetsk, the capital of the region of the same name (administrative region of Ukraine, Ed), is strategic. Moscow, which annexed the region, although it controls only half of it militarily, also wants to show that it can defend its new regional “capital” and loosen the ring around this city of millions.

But his frontal method for several months did not meet the expected success. From now on, the encirclement has the privilege of besieging the city, which the Russians are trying to encircle from the west and the north at the same time. Since January 1st, the Russian pincer movement has tightened as shown in the dark red areas on the map below.

“For five weeks, the Russian army has been developing a real strategy. It should be understood that the area has been fixed since 2014, that it is very high (with buildings, editor’s note) and in depth (With multiple lines of defense, Ed),” deciphers General (2S) Olivier Kempf. Despite this, the Russians west of the city have captured the hills north of Vodyane (in dark red on the map, editor’s note) and now dominate the Severn, just a few kilometers from Avdiivka. “The Ukrainian rear to the west of the city is less urbanized and therefore the ground will be more difficult to defend.General Kempf emphasizes. But from the east and north, the Russian tenail also closes on the line Krasnokhorivka-Vesele-Kamyanka. Avdiivka now appears half surrounded.

To destroy the city completely, the Russians could cut off supplies. “Avdiivka is mainly supplied by rail and road. Cutting off these inputs will force the Ukrainians to pull back because Severodonetsk (a city in Donbas where the Ukrainians retreated after a month of fierce fighting, Ed),” adds General Kempf. A method that the Russians are currently using in Bakhmut as well, although the final route still allows supplies to be made there.

But the Ukrainians could, as in Bakhmut, take advantage of this siege: “to stare in astonishmentRussian troops, thereby preventing them from attacking elsewhere or defending territory against a Ukrainian counteroffensive announced for spring. “In this type of siege, the city has the advantage of forcing the enemy to consolidate their forces and “use up” ammunition or soldiers.– says the general. In Bakhmut, for example, the Russians have lost between 10,000 and 15,000 troops in Bakhmut since the start of the march in May, according to Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president.

Clear Donetsk

Russia and its separatist allies made several attempts to capture Avdiivka as early as February 20, four days before the outbreak.special military operationby Vladimir Putin. But the Russian military has been investing heavily since last July, bringing in troops tasked with taking Lysischansk, further north in the Donbass. A decision that was not understood at the time. The way to Kramatorsk (the capital of Ukraine’s Donetsk region since 2014, editor’s note) and Sloviansk was open to them, but they preferred to focus on cleaning Donetsk and, therefore, Avdiivka.

Its capture would allow the Russians to clear Donetsk, which has been occupied by pro-Russian rebels since 2014 and annexed by Russia last September. During the first Donbas war, pro-Russian forces, supported by the Russian army, had already tried to capture the city, but were driven out after four months of occupation. Since then, Avdiivka has been fortified by the Ukrainians and remains an important point in the front line of Kiev’s defense system.

So far, the Ukrainian army declares.The failed Russian actionsIn Avdiivka, but the encirclement continues, however, of course, albeit slowly. And the spring counterattack has not yet arrived.