Francois Gaudement is a historian and Asia advisor at the Montaigne Institute.
THE: FIGARO: – On February 24, China presented the proposed plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. This document invites the parties involved to “support Russia and Ukraine to work in the same direction and resume direct dialogue as soon as possible.” What to remember from this text? Can we take this seriously?
Francois Godement. – This program takes the main elements of the Chinese position from the beginning of the invasion. First, they talk about the “Ukrainian crisis”. Neither war nor Russia’s role. Respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty is not accompanied by any precision. Which? “Security Guarantees” are required for everyone, therefore also for Russia. The only details are about nuclear power. rejection of the use of nuclear weapons, as well as attacks against civilian nuclear power plants, rejection of the use of other weapons of mass destruction.
If the rejection of the use of nuclear weapons may indeed seem like a warning to Russia, it should not be forgotten that China never specifically mentioned the occupation and bombing of the Zaporizhia power plant, and that Chinese propaganda blames the United States. Maintenance of chemical and biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine. On the other hand, especially German opinion is worried about nuclear energy, China’s position on this issue was presented as a significant achievement of Chancellor Scholz’s visit to Beijing last October. So this clause is a form of limited trust for Europeans. The rest is a restatement of standing positions without specific application to the current war.
China’s peace plan was released a day after Beijing abstained on Thursday night from a UN resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. What is the Chinese regime looking for? Should we see this as Beijing’s desire to become a central player in the conflict?
Rather, China’s goal is to take a stance on ending the conflict, which will please countries that do not support Ukraine. This position may be the subject of a resolution of the UN General Assembly to oppose the resolutions of the Western countries.
Only a complete defeat of Russia against Ukraine can especially harm China.
Francois Godement
Hoping to portray itself as a neutral mediator, isn’t China simply supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
Stakeholders in the conflict cannot completely ignore the possibility of Chinese mediation, or even Russia’s role as a messenger or godfather, if the United States and Europe together with Ukraine fulfill that function (see the 1954 Geneva Conference that ended the Indo-China War). If only Russia had said that this plan existed “interesting” But since the time has not yet come, President Zelensky in his turn announced that he wants to meet Xi Jinping. In addition, Poland insists that China cannot act as a mediator, but raises the stakes “positive”. Kazakhstan also talks about this project as “interesting”.
President Macron’s visit to Beijing in April should include a Ukrainian component. However, this does not mean that France supports the Chinese project. Chancellor Scholz himself admitted that he “We should have no illusions about China.”who won’t give up his support for Russia, and Joe Biden says the idea that China is negotiating an end to this war; “not rational”. In summary, the Chinese plan blurs the cards a bit, and many states want to keep in touch with Beijing.
Between its economic woes, related in particular to its zero-covid policy and its tacit support for Russia, could China “lose everything”?
On the contrary, he thinks again that he can “win it all”. The wave of Covid seems to have passed abruptly but quickly. The first signs of a strong recovery are emerging. Many countries, led by Germany, find it difficult to imagine that sanctions could hurt their bilateral trade with China, which has already suffered a backlash from sanctions against Russia. The war in Ukraine is not directly mobilizing the US military, but it is causing supply problems and could be an additional difficulty in the event of a conflict with China.
China is an essential rear base for Putin: energy sales, key imports, payments in yuan and not dollars, diplomatic and propaganda support… Only a complete defeat of Russia against Ukraine could particularly hurt China. Finally, the plight of Russian troops sent to Ukraine serves as a lesson to the PLA (Editor’s Note, National Army of the People’s Republic of China), since many of its weapons originate from Russia. The fact remains that China has financial and industrial resources that cannot be compared to Russia.
Source: Le Figaro
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.