A year after the war between Russia and Ukraine: what is the balance and what can happen in the coming months?

Ukraine, one of the most geographically vast countries in Europe, this Friday marks the year of the war with the world superpower – Russia. On the morning of February 24, 2022 Vladimir Putin ordered the military to be deployed and missiles fired at a neighboring country. It was the first major aggression of its kind in Europe since World War II in 1945, and despite the Russian president’s claims of rapid advance and takeover of the nation, this never happened.

Juan Carlos Ladines Professor of International Business at the University of the Pacificexplained to RPP News that Vladimir Putin had to go public in recent months to continue his speech against the West after the conflict spread more than they thought.

“I thought it would be an asymmetrical war. Obviously, one cannot compare the military potential of Ukraine with the military potential of Russia. My assessment then, I mean a year ago, was that if Putin didn’t win this war in six months, he would.” It will be difficult, and what has been seen is calculated management, so Putin is seen in the media as more exposed, more discursive, exacerbating nationalist elements, that the West is to blame, not him. Blame nothing. I think he was forced to expose himself and say, “I’m fighting for something to defend a non-Western position.” Obviously, he did not include the capture of Zelensky in his strategy, ”he explained.

For him internationalist Paul SaavedraDuring these 12 months, Ukraine was able to take full advantage of the weaknesses of Russian military tactics in order to delay this expansion beyond the Donbass for as long as possible, even regaining some territories. And despite the constant disadvantage compared to the great military power that Russia has.

“Putin’s strategy has failed. He never imagined what kind of resistance he would have from Ukraine, and even more so since he would have a supply chain from other countries. We saw support from the United States, France and Great Britain, that “this allowed the war to be extended for a year. The main achievement of Russia would be to save this region of Donbass, which just led them to the war, which they called preventive, to protect the population, ”he explained. .

Ukraine has also been applying to NATO for official membership for a year, but without success. For Ladines, said organization will give priority to Scandinavian countries that have also requested entry, such as Finland and Sweden, over a country in conflict.

“Can NATO enter the situation in which Ukraine is now? No, because NATO is a military alliance that seeks the solidarity of its partners. To put it in a very pragmatic sense: what is the point of inviting a country, what is going on to create more instability, or what might make me insecure? NATO is in a difficult position because it knows it represents a lot for the world or for the Western world if it can oppose authoritarian systems like Vladimir Putin … and behind the scenes, China,” he explained.

For his part, Paul Saavedra pointed out that the possibility of using nuclear weapons is still very latent and is another reason why NATO still does not accept Zelensky’s request.

“One of the factors hindering this is precisely the risk of a nuclear threat. If Ukraine were part of NATO, it would have its allies, including the United States, a large nuclear weapons potential, and Russia also has it. In this case, we can talk about a third world war with catastrophic consequences,” he said.

Did the sanctions work?

Economy Russia appears to have weathered the shock of Western sanctions better than expected. According to an AFP report, this country has accumulated 11,327 sanctions from G7 members, the European Union, Switzerland and Australia.

“Economic sanctions imposed by the West have not had the expected effect, just like in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. In 2015, its GDP shrank by just 2%. internationalist Paul Saavedra.

The same opinion is shared by Ladines, who noted that, despite the conflict, the Russian economy was able to withstand all sorts of sanctions.

“Russia is now turning to the countries of the Middle East, China and India for negotiations. This led to the fact that they work at the pre-war level. Yes, they may have fallen 11%, but the idea is how it will use this income and how it will cause a rebound in his economy. It’s very relative. This is not an economy that is so connected, apart from oil, to the rest of the world and which, for better or for worse, is going in the direction of what he wants to do. Vladimir Putinwhich exacerbates nationalist sentiment,” he added.

The same position was Jorge Guillen, professor at Esan Graduate School of Business, WHO He added that this strategy did not help him stop Russia’s desire to invade Ukraine.

“NATO hoped that this would be a strategy that would not allow Russia to resist any more, but we are already in winter when this country is stronger. It was not as expected and she still has time,” he explained.

What is the forecast for the coming months?

Juan Carlos Ladinez He pointed out that the situation between Ukraine and Russia remains tensely calm due to the Russian winter, but the whole war could resume with greater force at the end of March, when the first of them arrives in this part of the continent.

“The first scenario: Ukraine wins. What wins? Territoriality, even Donbass returns. The big question is what will form after that and who will be the zone of influence? Will NATO come now and say if you are our partner? This will continue to provoke and create long-term tension. So that you need to sit down and watch, and I think you will have tough diplomacy,” he said.

On the other hand, he argued that Russia, in the event of a loss, could choose whether to leave Crimea or Donbass as part of its territory.

“Russia has reorganized its troops so that they are strategically placed in the southern zone. They already know that the northern zone of Ukraine is not completely reclaimed, of course because they want to protect the Crimea, and it will just overheat to deliver it sometime in the spring, which will be at the end of March. Zelensky now has military resources, not as many as the Russians, but he has a strategy,” he added.

For Jorge Guillen, professor at Esan Graduate School of Businessc, the Russians already had a long-term plan in this conflict with the Ukrainians, but in the end it will continue to harm the world if tensions continue.

“Everyone said that the war would not last long, but it did not last. Putin considered the scenario of punishments and sanctions. He was already prepared for a long-term situation, and Ukraine is trying to resist to the end. in this scenario, when both do not give up, the whole world suffers from the consequences of inflation and slowdown, which
It can last like a world war that lasted four or five years until one of the two surrenders, but with very negative consequences. And I think that the scenario in which Ukraine wins is very unlikely,” he said.

From my side, Paul Saavedra He explained that a peaceful solution could indeed be reached, but it would depend on many negotiating tables.

“TONow the Zelensky government is going to put Ukraine’s entry into NATO on the negotiating table as a way to prevent Russia’s desire to carry out another invasion and the desire to annex another of the country’s territories, in this sense it is necessary to take into account the strategic and geopolitical value that Ukraine represents for Russia, which is its gateway to Europe, as well as the amount of resources it has,” he said. .

War in numbers

A UN Human Rights Office report released on February 13 puts the number of civilians killed in Ukraine at 7,199. To date, 2,616 men, 1,856 women, 2,341 boys and 253 girls have been identified among the victims; as well as 6,430 adults and 260 children, whose gender is not yet known.

Last November, General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggested that at least 40,000 people died in the conflict.

On the other hand, according to European Commission Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders, nearly 65,000 alleged war crimes have been recorded.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the government of Ukraine said more than 8 million refugees from Ukraine had been registered across Europe since the start of the Russian invasion, according to figures published up to February 13.

At least 4,850,464 refugees from Ukraine were registered in temporary protection programs or similar national protection schemes in Europe.