War in Ukraine: Why did Chinese military support for Russia change the scenario of the conflict?

USA says China is considering sending weapons to Russia for your war with Ukraine And while Beijing denies it, experts believe that if it were true, there would have been a change of scenery in the conflict that began a year ago.

Below are some key questions about Washington’s version and its implications.

What is behind the US claim?

Ever since the Russian tanks entered Ukraine, China it provided diplomatic cover and financial support for Putin, though it refused to intervene in hostilities or supply lethal weapons.

State-controlled Chinese firms sold non-lethal drones and other equipment Russia And Ukrainebut Moscow has been forced to turn to Iran to acquire weapons such as combat drones.

The United States also said that North Korea sent Russia rockets and artillery shells.

Washington believes this could change, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has made those concerns public.

“Based on the information we have…they are considering providing lethal support,” Blinken said of the Chinese on Sunday.

Blinken has provided no evidence to support this account, and critics point to other US intelligence errors, but his claim follows a US pattern of proactive disclosure of sensitive information to thwart Russia’s plans.

“The fact that Mr Blinken chose to go public with his concerns suggests that USA has a strong intellect,” said Richard McGregor, an East Asian specialist at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Beijing accused Washington of “spreading false information” and “sharing the blame.”

Why is Washington concerned?

During the war Russia he has struggled to have enough personnel, ammunition and weapons to quell fierce Ukrainian resistance, forcing Putin to resort to mass recruitment, mercenary groups and imports.

Meanwhile, Ukraine he managed to contain the superiority of Russia and even to gain the upper hand. But some experts believe the war is at a tipping point, with each gang demanding resources with an eye on decisive victories.

In this context, the influx of Chinese weapons will change the scenario, retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan told AFP.

“This is an industrial systems war. At the moment, Russia is inferior to the West. If China comes, any advantage of Ukraine in terms of Western industrial capacity will disappear,” he explained.

Chinese munitions “would make life very difficult for Ukrainians, be it artillery munitions, precision-guided munitions and long-range weapons that Russia lacks,” he added.

Why should China interfere?

This was stated by Chinese military analyst Song Zhongping. China weapons will not be sent, although trade and military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing deepened even before the war in Ukraine and that it will continue.

“China will not listen to the (demands) of the US. China will strengthen cooperation with Russia in accordance with its will and national security considerations,” he said.

Many experts believe there is more at stake as the Ukrainian war has turned into a Cold War-style power struggle.

“War in Ukraine This is a turning point for the international security environment, for the world order,” said Alexei Muravyov, professor of security and strategic studies at Perth Curtin University.

China’s decision to export weapons would be a “huge move” that would expose it to Western sanctions, burn its remaining bridges with Washington, and damage its relationship with Europe.

But Muravyov believes that the prospect of a Russian defeat worries Beijing.

“Yeah Russia lose politically or militarily UkraineChina will be left alone,” he said. “Russia is the only superpower that supports China.”

Meanwhile, a Russian victory “would inflict a strategic defeat on the United States,” he added, helping to revive President Xi Jinping’s claim that the West is in decline.

“For the Chinese, Russia’s failure to win last year was almost a bucket of cold water,” he said. “They began to reassess their ability to carry out a similar campaign,” he added.

“War in Ukraine It shows that you can put on lavish military parades and large-scale exercises, but the real test of whether your armed forces are up to the task is on the battlefield.”

Muravyov believes that China he may try to supply weapons through state-controlled companies, North Korea or the Wagner Group, rather than directly to Russian forces. (AFP?