Russia a year after the invasion of Ukraine: uncertainty, repression and emigration

One year after the start of the war in Ukraine, this is still euphemistically called a “special operation” in Russia. But in real life, citizens’ anxiety is growing as their rights are increasingly restricted.

“People are convinced that Russian army 71% of respondents react in this way, but doubts and fears are growing despite propaganda efforts,” Levada Center Director Lev Gudkov told EFE.

pills against reality

According to polls, in Russia The demand for sleeping pills, antidepressants and various tranquilizers has grown sharply.

From January to September 2022 alone, Russians spent 70% more on antidepressants than in the same period in 2021, according to a Frank Brand survey.

Russians’ concerns doubled in September last year (to 69%) when the authorities announced a surprise mobilization. This barometer rises every time there are rumors of a new call for reservists.

Gudkov explains that the prospect of military defeat and the associated political and social crisis are a constant source of “mass unrest and phobias.”

Who supports the Kremlin?

“The core (ardent supporters of the war) is 10% of the electorate,” says Abbas Gallyamov, an analyst who once wrote speeches by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Among this group, he adds, the position of the Russian leader is an irrefutable dogma. The next group is 20% of citizens who agree with the Kremlin’s speech, but “do not accept repression.”

These people, he argues, “will feel relieved” if peace is achieved in the country. Ukraine despite the apparent support for the military campaign.

Polls show that support for the military campaign remains between 71 and 77% throughout the year. At the same time, more than half of Russians want peace talks.

silent wall

In addition, there are 25% of citizens who have never shown interest in politics, the so-called “apolitical”, according to Gallyamov. At the beginning of the offensive, most of these people supported the Kremlin.

“This created the impression that all of Russia was in favor, but not all Russiaand those who had not been involved in politics before. And now the same ones are going in the opposite direction. They lose interest and become depoliticized,” he says.

According to the director of Levada, the resignation of the Russians is connected with “aggressive and absolutely anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian” propaganda, as well as severe censorship in the media.

dissenting voices

Among those who decided to rebel, many became extras in administrative (5601 people) and criminal (420 people) cases.

At the same time, the number of arrests for criticizing the military campaign has increased to 20 thousand, and most of the cases occurred during pacifist actions, the OVD-Info portal specified.

For example, several people were arrested defying the Kremlin in solo pickets after a building explosion in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro that killed dozens of people.

Anonymous citizens began to bring flowers and toys to the monuments of individuals associated with Ukraine in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg to honor the victims of the deadly attack.

In addition, 2022 was marked by the liquidation of former human rights organizations such as Memorial and the Moscow Helsinki Group, as well as the closure of almost all independent media, including the main opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta, whose director is the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate.

anti-war emigration

According to the public organization “Roskomsvoboda”, more than 1000 Russian journalists emigrated last year for fear of persecution or sanctions against their media outlets.

As for ordinary citizens, emigration over the past year had two waves. The first immediately after the start of the military campaign, and the second in September last year after the start of partial mobilization, when hundreds of thousands of people fled the country.

“I came to Astana (Kazakhstan), like many others, as soon as the mobilization was announced in Russia,” Arseniy Molchanov, 31, told EFE.

He worries that Russia is shutting down and is on its way to becoming “like Iran.” And he says that he will be able to return to his country only if “power changes” and a “thaw” comes.

Victoria Platunova, who has been living in Georgia for a year, agrees with him.

“I want to see democratic change in my country, regime change that has affected so many lives, and the start of reparations Ukraine”, – he claims. (EFE)