The war in Ukraine has united the EU against Russia, but has opened up challenges that are still unclear.

The war in Ukraine has caused geostrategic changes in the European Union (EU), because all countries, not just the east, have internalized the risk posed by Russia and created a series of challenges with an uncertain outcome. will mark the future of the club and the continent.

As a consequence of this new shared perception of the threat posed by the Kremlin, energy security has become fundamental, and in order to avoid supply European Union in a year she reduced that dependence on Moscow that she had before the war.

Twenty-seven have stopped importing their oil and managed to make the gas they buy. Russia Today it is 9% compared to 40% a year ago, which they supply with more diversified suppliers, mainly from the US, but also from Norway and Qatar.

“The first and most obvious thing that has changed ‘with the war’ is the diversification of energy,” Rose Balfour, director of think tank Carnegie Europe, who “will find it difficult to return to the status quo,” told EFE.

For now ” European Union turned out to be more resistant to energy “shock” than we thought, Brueghel researcher Georg Zachmann told EFE.

In fact, the European Commission has just raised its growth forecast for the euro area and European Unionto 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, and reduced inflation to 5.6%.

taboo

Another change caused by the conflict is that European Unionfor the first time finances the supply of arms to support a third country under attack, breaking a taboo in an organization that was born after the Second World War with the aim of guaranteeing peace between European countries.

“It’s a taboo that has been broken and now I’m starting to think that this might be the way European Union in the future, they will deal with security issues around the world,” says Balfour.

However, the war has once again confirmed that NATO is the true guarantor of Europe’s security, burying statements by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2019 when he said that the Atlantic Alliance was “brain dead”.

Russian invasion of Ukraine put “reality” on the table, Balfour continues, that Europeans depend on the United States for security and defense, for which “strategic autonomy is less relevant” now than European Union he wanted to boost, first with the rise of former US President Donald Trump and then with the pandemic.

The idea shared by Zach Pikin, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Studies, for whom the “most immediate dynamic” generated by the war is that ” European Union He is not stronger because he is more tied to the United States to ensure his own security.”

security in Europe

Paikin believes that the fact that all countries European Union accepted the threat posed by Moscow “does not mean that we have the same global vision when it comes to security and defense policy European Union”and therefore how the war should end.

“There is an agreement in European Union that the war will end when Ukraine decides that the time has come, that the future borders Ukraine they should not be decided in Paris, Berlin, Warsaw or Washington. They will have to be solved in Kyiv,” says Balfour.

But he believes that “if a military victory Ukraine it is not so obvious that it is possible, given that an offensive (from Moscow) is expected and Russia has the resources, some countries in Europe may begin to argue that there must be some kind of compromise solution regarding territorial integrity Ukraine”.

For now European Union and Western countries are committed to military assistance to Kyiv and Brussels has already granted Ukraine the status of a candidate country, showing not only its support, but also the fight against Russia to gain influence in the area, and also in the Western Balkans, the annexation process of which also increased twenty-seven.

Expansion is “another big potential change” that war could bring about in European Unionbecause it will force “major reforms”, not only in internal decision-making, with the hypothetical elimination of unanimity, but, for example, the Common Agricultural Policy, since “Ukraine It’s a big agricultural sector.”

(As reported by EFE)

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