Macron says ‘ready for protracted conflict’ in Munich

In 2007, right there at the prestigious Munich Security Conference, long considered the Davos of defense, Vladimir Putin delivered a very harsh speech against the West and the United States, to the consternation of the European political leaders listening. The Russian president condemned it.unipolar world“, you”of one master, one sovereign“.

The first guns of the war in Georgia were already pointing in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and then the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But only Central and Eastern European countries heard their echo of the era. This year, the Bayerischer Hof hotel has been repainted in the colors of Ukraine, with its giant blue and yellow banners reminding everyone that Ukraine and Westerners share the same boat. Vladimir Putin’s war drove Russian officials out of the Bavarian capital.

Russia’s revenge

A year after the start of the war, at the time of the first assessment, Emmanuel Macron confirmed a slight change in his Russian policy. One whose certain formulas do notdegrade“Russia, give it to him”security guarantees– shocked the Ukrainians and their Eastern European allies, gave an unambiguous speech about France’s goals. “Russia cannot and must not win this war… Russian aggression must fail“, he announced. After hoping at the beginning of the war that it would end quickly, the French president. who adapts to circumstances“According to one of his relatives, he understood that it is necessary to prepare for the conflict.”long term“. Russia”,who did not digest the fall of the Soviet empire,” and takes revenge by chasing the “crazy dream” of restoring it, is far, far from the first step on the giant ladder that leads to peace. “It must last… We are ready to step up our efforts“, he said.

But in essence, Emmanuel Macron, even if he paid attention to the choice of resolutions, did not violate his convictions towards Vladimir Putin’s Russia. For several days in the Elysée, words that had not been spoken in Paris before, such as “victoryof Ukraine and AdefeatFrom Russia. This was not the case with Emmanuel Macron in Munich. With the President of France, as with Tolstoy, war and peace always go hand in hand. “We must now prepare the terms and conditions of peaceHe said: He remembers it from the beginning of the war.None of us will change geography, Russia will always be on the European continent“. Therefore it cannot belasting and comprehensive peace on the Continent without involving the Russian question“.

Emmanuel Macron realizes this, the one who has not spoken to Vladimir Putin since September 11.Today is not the time for dialogue“. But his goal, repeating military and political support to Kyiv, is:force Russia to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine’s terms“. We sense that he is eager to work for this peace, which neither the aggressor Vladimir Putin nor the attacked Vladimir Zelensky wants at the moment, but which he knows will come.”on time“. One way to do that is to work to rebuild trust.”Global Southwhich does not condemn the aggression against Russia. He who always said that he wanted to make France “Ppower of mediationasserts the fact that Europemust take its place at the negotiating table“. And to those in Eastern Europe who believe that peace, or, in any case, lasting peace, cannot come as long as Vladimir Putin is in power, he answers:I do not believe for a second in the “mode of change”.“.

Strategic autonomy

While playing Schubert on the piano in the conference enclosure, Vladimir Zelensky saw in a video the photos and significant videos of the first year of the war in the parade from Kiev. The destruction imposed on the cities of his country, the wounds inflicted on the civilian population. The President of Ukraine spoke not about peace and negotiations, but on the contrary, about the imperative “To defeat Russia”. by military means. “There is no alternativehe said to applause. He also urged Ukraine’s allies to deliver weapons faster. “Vladimir Putin is trying to buy time. We have to go fast. We need speed in terms of arms supply, decisions aimed at limiting Russian potential. There is no solution other than speed, because life depends on ithe insisted. He would like to go faster and offer his country victory in 2023. He is likely worried about the resilience of Western countries and the ability of the Ukrainian military to withstand the waves of Russian troops promised by the Kremlin’s announced mobilization. In 2022, he came to Munich in search of ““Western Resolve” to counter the Russian military threat. “Then I only got it after the Russians invaded us“. Today he is asking for tanks, fighters, ammunition and missiles before it is too late.

But is the sense of urgency shared by Ukraine’s Western allies? No, because he is constrained both by the fear of Russian reactions to a stronger commitment from Europe and the United States, by fear of chaos following the departure of Vladimir Putin, and by the limits of defense and European armies. Emmanuel Macron, who has made strategic autonomy one of his foreign policy priorities, has made a new appeal to his allies to convince them that European defense is not working on NATO’s flowerbeds. “We need to reinvest in our defense, accelerate our ability to produce on European soil.“WHAT”reset“should be”intellectual” As well as “substance”. Will France and Europe manage to reach him?