War in Ukraine: Russian army does not satisfy Putin’s desire for victory

Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding tangible results from his army in Ukraine to present himself in a decisive address to the nation, the first of which he will give almost two years later, but it has brought nothing but huge territorial gains.

“We did not start hostilities, we tried to end them. The fighting was started by the nationalists in Ukraine and those who supported them in 2014,” said Vladimir Putin ten days before speech in Parliament, 21 February.

Vladimir Putin he repeatedly had to delay his annual keynote speech due to a lack of battlefield victories. The decision to annex four Ukrainian regions almost six months ago did not improve Russia’s prospects at the front either.

The proximity of the first anniversary of the conflict – February 24 – and Western promises to Kyiv of heavy offensive weapons – from tanks to long-range missiles – are forcing it to show its face for the first time since April 2021.

Mercenaries save the face of the Kremlin

Whether the Kremlin likes it or not, the only good news from the front comes from the Wagner group’s mercenaries, who on Sunday said they had taken a new city near Bakhmut (Donetsk).

This is the city of Krasna Gora, ten kilometers from Bakhmut, between Soledar, taken last month, and a vital Ukrainian stronghold.

This means that the Wagners are within walking distance of the road leading to one of the main military squares in Ukraine: Slavyansk.

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin once again hurled a poisoned arrow at the army, arguing that Moscow had not sent regular troops into the area and that its soldiers of fortune were continuing to do the dirty work.

“There is no special detachment (…). Within a radius of about 50 kilometers, there are only Wagnerites, who will eventually conquer Bakhmut, ”he said in Telegram.

Prigozhin explained that he no longer recruits convicts, which puts the Ministry of Defense in a very bad light. Russiawhich, according to some bloggers, would prescribe to minimize the presence of Wagner in the media.

Ukraine recognized the offensive of Russia

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense Russia reported in his daily report on the destruction of arsenals along the entire front line from northeast Kharkiv to south Kherson through Donetsk and Luhansk, attacks that reportedly killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers, including two mechanized brigades in the Kupyansk region ( Kharkov) and one detachment in Ugledar (Donetsk).

According to various Ukrainian and Western sources, these will be the first steps of a general offensive ordered by Vladimir Putin.

In this regard, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council UkraineAlexey Danilov admitted last night that Moscow would have launched this “big offensive” by now, but would have faced “big problems” from the very beginning.

“The offensive that they planned is gradually advancing. But this is not the offensive that they expected,” he said on Ukrainian television.

According to Danilov, Ukrainian forces will put up “great resistance.” The best examples are Avdiivka on the outskirts of the capital Donetsk and Vuhledar, where the Russians have suffered heavy losses and still cannot take the city by storm.

According to Ukrainian sources, in three days (8-10) of the assault on both cities, the Russian army would have lost several thousand people and more than a hundred tanks, armored vehicles and other military equipment.

Over the past two weeks, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, based on official Ukrainian data, Russia she was losing an average of 824 per day, five times the rate of 170 in July 2022, but still far from the 1,140 per day at the start of the military campaign.

doubts persist

Russian military bloggers continue to have serious doubts that the army will be able to conquer the entire annexed territory, and some pro-Russian officers in Donbass they are even calling on Russia’s high command to change its strategy.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also believes that Russia it does not have the capacity to carry out a major mechanized ground offensive, especially after losing, according to some reports, half of its tanks last year.

Prigozhin went even further, assuring that it would take Moscow about two years to get to the administrative border of Donetsk.

On the other hand, military intelligence Ukraine This Sunday, he said that “the Russian command does not have sufficient resources to carry out large-scale offensive operations” and that he will have to be content with tactical victories.

Kyiv notes that Russian aviation and artillery have already used up 80% of their high-precision missiles, and the military industry has not yet had time to replenish this arsenal.

(As reported by EFE)

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Fernando Carvallo selects information and shares his vision of national and international news. subscribe to our Las cosas newsletter, as they should be reading your daily columns.