Peru and Bolivia are among the most prone to glacial lake flooding, according to the study.

Approximately fifteen million people around the world could be threatened overflows sudden glacial lakes, with the populations of the highlands of Asia (India, Pakistan and China) and the Andes (Peru and Bolivia) being the most vulnerable.

More than half of these fifteen million people at this potential risk are concentrated in four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and Chinaindicates a study published today in Nature Communications.

As the climate warms, glaciers are retreating and water from thaw it accumulates on its front, forming a lake that can suddenly erupt and create a Glacial Lake Flooding Flooding (GLOF), which in some cases can even extend for more than 120 kilometers.

These floods often occur without warning when a natural dam containing a glacial lake fails. According to the magazine, GLOF can cause material damage to infrastructure and has already resulted in numerous casualties.

A team led by Newcastle University (Great Britain) conducted the first global assessment of the areas most at risk of flooding caused by glacial lakes and identified priority areas for mitigation.

To do this, they studied 1089 river basins. glacial lakes around the world and the number of people living within 50 kilometers, as well as the level of development of these areas and other social indicators, such as GLOF vulnerability markers.

They used this information to quantify and rank the potential damage from GLOF globally in 2020, and to assess the ability of communities to respond effectively to flood.

The results showed that 15 million people live within 50 kilometers of the glacial lake and that high Asia (covering the Tibetan Plateau from Kyrgyzstan to China), has the highest risk from GLOF, potentially risking 9.3 million people.

If the 1089 studied glacial basins are ranked from highest to lowest risk, the first three are in Pakistan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Basin); Peru (Santa Basin) and Bolivia (Beni Basin), covering, respectively, 1.2 million, 0.9 million and 0.1 million people who could be exposed to GLOF, the authors write.

The study highlights Peru as one of only four countries with more than half of the world’s people exposed to this potential hazard.

The Andes, according to the team, are of “concern” with a potential GLOF impact similar to that of the high mountains of Asia, but with few published studies.

According to the University of Newcastle, the region should be the subject of more detailed studies to better understand this potential threat due to the large number of people living near glacial lakes and their limited ability to cope with the effects of such flooding.

Lead researcher Caroline Taylor from Newcastle University stressed that the present study shows that the most dangerous areas are not those with the most lakes or with the fastest growth.

He potential danger A GLOF event is determined by the number of people, their proximity to the glacial lake and their ability to cope with flooding, he listed in a university statement.

“Understanding which areas are most at risk of suffering floods glaciers This will enable more targeted and effective risk management measures, which in turn will help minimize the loss of life and damage to downstream infrastructure from this severe natural hazard,” says Rachel Carr from Newcastle University.

As glaciers continue to recede due to change climateglacial lakes will expand and new ones will form, changing the spatial pattern of the GLOF hazard.

For this reason, the authors need to conduct further studies to assess temporal changes in lake conditions, impacts and vulnerabilities in order to determine paper a relative of each of them at risk of GLOF.

EFE