“It seems that only audio or video that directly incriminates the president can raise the streets,” the political scientist says.

Dario Pedraglioconsulting company political scientist 50+1in dialogue with RPP Newscommented that the recent political crisis, following a constitutional complaint filed by the national prosecutor against President Pedro Castillo, opens up new scenarios for the opposition, but with “uncertain” results regarding citizen reactions.

“The fact that Congress to have such a high disapproval, and much lower than that of the President, makes these attempts to remove him pale in public opinion. There are no new credible leaders to raise the issue of removing the president. There is also a lot of resistance against those who seek to remove it,” he explained.

However, he considered that the appearance of an “audio or video recording” directly incriminating the head of state could be decisive for public opinion, which would require the resignation of the president.

“Perhaps if a video or some kind of audio appears, this can change and cause citizens to become more active. But for the time being, we see that they are turning off each other, and this is forcing a street to be turned off, a street that has problems, in addition to the executive branch. “Legislative struggle, worries are more connected with everyday life, with the way out of the economic crisis, with the price of gasoline. So going to protests is not a priority for many citizens,” he said.

In this regard, he emphasized that these types of audiovisual recordings ended up “tipping the balance” against recent heads of state such as Martin Vizcarra or Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

“If you look at past cases, it was the audio that made the former president even more confused. viscarrawhen PPK that was the sound too if we go back to Fujimori there is vladyvideo. Then. Yes tradition that it is this type of audiovisual evidence that ultimately tips the scales. And the opposition is waiting for the same, because, although the signs are alarming and point to Government it may be due to violations, and this is not something that could be done in black and white for a citizen who is not attentive to the news every day,” he said.

“There are no jobs yet”

Regarding the current political crisis, pedrallo believes that the opposition now has a “new alternative to push for the president’s departure” and that this requires even fewer votes than the 87 required to approve a vacancy against the president. However, he believed that nothing had yet been determined.

“A scenario is opening up that should be more favorable for the opposition, which does not yet have the necessary votes for the vacancy and it is not clear if they have the votes to support the charge against the head of state. In this sense, we should look at how the negotiations develop, first in the subcommittee on constitutional charges, and if this filter passes, then in the standing committee and, finally, at the plenary session,” he explained.

Regarding the constitutional complaint filed by the prosecutor’s office, the analyst noted that this gives the opposition “feeding”, which it did not have before; but this does not yet have that “assertiveness” that clearly determines the fate of the president.

“The fact that the information in this case already comes directly from prosecution, lends support to an opposition that probably didn’t exist before with previous job offers or with the constitutional complaint of treason it was already prosecuting. Now this path is open, which gives them stronger support. I don’t know if the evidence is already so strong that perhaps some would expect that the removal of the president is already inevitable (and) that some congressmen who support him can no longer do it, ”he said.

In addition, he pointed out that the possible elimination of 6 People’s Action congressmen accused of being “children” could “change the balance” in parliament, but that there was still a lot of “uncertainty” about the political scenario.

“The lack of preferences regarding this process also opens up many incomprehensible opportunities, we see constant disputes between lawyers in Twitter that they say this or that, but it is important for citizens to be clear that apart from legal opinions, in the end, this is a political issue, which is likely to be determined by a vote and which will not be determined in the coming days, but which may take time, “- he noticed.

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