New statistics measure infant life expectancy at 93 for girls and 90 for boys. Numbers that could grow even more in the coming years.
Generation of centenarians. Children born in 2022 can expect to live to be 93 years old for girls and 90 years old for boys, according to new statistics from the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Research INSEE, published on Thursday 10 November. An increasing index for several years. These figures correspond to the “central scenario”, that is, the assumption that mortality risks continue to decline at the same rate as during the decade 2010-2019.
Moreover, if future mortality risk declines less rapidly than current curves, life expectancy for the generation born in 2022 could peak at 88 years for women and 86 years for men. Conversely, if the decline in mortality risk accelerates, this generation’s life expectancy may increase to 99 years for women and 96 years for men. This, in particular, will depend on future advances in medicine.
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Generation of 1900
“Life expectancy increases from generation to generation,” states the Institute of Statistical Research. And this in impressive proportions, since the generation born in 1900, now completely extinct, lived an average of only 56 years for women and 48 years for men. In other words, “women and men born in 2022 could live an average of 37 years and 42 years longer than generations born in 1900,” the authors emphasize.
The decline in infant mortality has greatly contributed to this development. More than 15% of children born in 1900 died before their first birthday, compared to less than 0.4% of those born in 2020. The rate of increase in life expectancy was “particularly rapid” for the generations born between the two wars and then after 1945, thanks in particular to the advent of antibiotics.
Mixed method
To arrive at these results, demographers use both data from the past—for example, among people born in 1950, we know how many have already died and at what age—and projections into the future for people born in 1950 who are 72 years old today. , we try to determine how many years are left to live on average.
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Thanks to this mixed method, we know that 0.9% of women born in 1900 became centenarians, but 6.2% of those born in 1940 are likely to pass this milestone (under the “central scenario”). The margin of uncertainty for little girls born in 2022 is very large. in the low hypothesis they would be 10% to know the year 2122, and in the high hypothesis 50%.
Source: Le Figaro
