Coup d’etat: how did it affect the economy?

Pedro Castillo’s decision to start “government exception” and the dissolution of the Congress would affect the economy of Peru.

The first impact that becomes apparent after a few minutes of the message has been sent to the nation is the dollar rising more than 1%, which could be worth up to S/3.90 at the interbank level. At the close, the dollar fell due to the dismissal of Castillo and in line with the global market.

“Immediate effect of this announcement Pedro Castillo Obviously, this will be the exchange rate. The dollar has already skyrocketed and it is not yet clear where the military support will go, it will continue to grow, it is likely that if it finds something else, it will go down in the coming days, but today the trend is upward, explains Jorge Carrillo Acosta, financial expert Pacifico Business School.

This also indicates that it may cause fear in the population due to instability what it causes in the situation with your savings.

Will GDP forecasts fall?

A month ago, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) cut Peru’s economic growth forecast to 2.7-3%, but will it hold up?

Former Economy Minister Carlos Oliva notes that given that there are only a few days left before the close of the year, this will not have much impact on GDP this 2022.

“The impact of them on this year’s performance will be negligible, very negligible, but the question is, what will happen next year? Then we will see what happens at the end of the day,” he said.

For his part, former MEF head Luis Miguel Castilla notes that if the constitutional course is followed and Vice President Dina Boluarte takes over the government, then only short-term economic uproar can be seen.

But he points out that if this situation generates more uncertainty “There is a danger that next year we will have (growth) even 2%.”