Kurt Burneo denies the existence of an economic crisis, is it true?

Economy Minister Curt Burneo ruled out this week that Peru is close to a crisis. recession and believed that the country was not threatened by an economic crisis.

“I would not say that we are in an economic crisis, what kind of economic crisis? The economy continues to grow, slowly, but it continues to grow,” he said at a recent conference.

But is it right to say that the country is not in danger of an economic crisis?

In August, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) forecast that Peru’s economic growth would be 3.3% by the end of this year, but recently adjusted that estimate to only show growth between 2.7% and 3%.

For Eduardo Jiménez, economist and head of information systems at Macroconsult, the data shows a slowdown due to uncertainty and reduce investor confidence, but notes that it is not yet possible to say that we are already in a crisis.

“Usually, the economic crisis is understood as a recession, we are not in it. The problem in Peru is that we will have very low growth, which will not allow us to move anywhere. Forecasts for the next few years are simply above 2%, that is, such low growth that it does not allow social indicators such as poverty, employment, income and formality to recover,” he explained to the RPP.

The head of economic research at the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), Victor Fuentes, agrees that at the moment there are no signs economic crisis.

“Peru’s economy is facing a clear economic downturn after growing 3.5% in the first half of the year, with estimates that GDP would only grow 1.7% in the third quarter due to less dynamism in consumption and investment,” he commented.

Fuentes added that the GDP expected for next year FEMbetween 3.1% and 3.9%, has a very positive slope as private investment is forecast to fall sharply.

While both economists warn that Peru is heading down a mediocre growth path, they note that it cannot be argued that a recession is expected in 2023.

Jimenez points out that economic crisis a scenario could occur in a country in which a very strong shock occurs, such as a global recession or a change in the Constitution.