The bank’s analysts revised their forecast for the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy in this and the next years.
The World Bank improved the growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy in 2023 from 2.1% to 3.3%, according to the updated WB report on Tuesday, October 4.
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The assessment of the economy in 2022 has also been improved – in June, the WB expected a fall of 45.1%, and now it is 35%.
in 2024, Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to reach 4.1%.
“Growth is expected to resume in 2023 but remain subdued, with recovery efforts gaining momentum towards the end of the forecast period,” the report said.
The impact of the war will be reflected in the short term, the bank’s analysts predict, as economic activity will be disrupted by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land and reduction of labor supply, especially if the refugees do not return.
Based on a global poverty line of $6.85 per person per day, poverty in Ukraine is expected to increase from 5.5% in 2021 to 25% in 2022, with a high risk of deterioration if the war and energy security situation worsens . In addition, the learning losses caused by the pandemic are expected to be exacerbated by the war, due to the destruction of schools and the disruption of learning.
Also, the World Bank changed the forecast for Russia, improving the estimate of the decline this year from 8.9% to 4.5%, but worsened next year from 2% to 3.6%, in 2024 it is expected to grow by 1.6% .
It should be noted that the Ukrainian authorities expect that the economy will fall by almost 33% this year, and growth of more than 15% next year.
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Source: korrespondent
I am Dylan Hudson, a dedicated and experienced journalist in the news industry. I have been working for Buna Times, as an author since 2018. My expertise lies in covering sports sections of the website and providing readers with reliable information on current sporting events.