According to Cepal, the Peruvian economy will end the year up 2.5%.

Peru could end the year with 2.5% growth for its economy, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecasts. Forecasts may exceed expectations for Chile, Brazil and Paraguay.

Although there are good forecasts not only for Peru, but also for others such as Venezuela, which predicts growth of up to 10%, followed by Colombia (6.5%), Uruguay (4.5%), Argentina (3.5% ), Bolivia (3.5%), Ecuador (2.7%), Chile (1.9%), Brazil (1.6%) and Paraguay (0.2%).

For Latin America, expected economic growth of 2.7% at the end of this year, despite strong macroeconomic constraints affecting the region’s economy.

Crisis breeds low productivity and inflation

lCountries’ economies will be affected by several factors, such as their political crises.accelerating inflation at the global level, in addition to the appreciation of the dollar and the tightening of current financial conditions to deal with the situation.

“In the context of multiple targets and growing constraints, macroeconomic policy coordination is required to support accelerated growth, investment, reducing poverty and inequality, countering inflationary dynamics”, said Mario Cimoli, Acting Executive Secretary of ECLAC.

Although the countries Latin America and the Caribbean face challenging scenarios in the coming years, ECLAC warned of a sum of strong inflationary pressures; in addition to the low dynamics of job creation, falling investment, etc.

This has created a major challenge for macroeconomic policy to promote recovery, control inflation and ensure the sustainability of public finances.

“Adding to the complex domestic scenario of the region is an international scenario in which a war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine triggered growing geopolitical tensions, less dynamic global economic growth, less food availability and rising energy prices, which increased inflationary pressures that arose as a result of supply disruptions. caused by the Covid-19 disease pandemic,” the report says.

ECLAC forecasts growth in South America of 2.6% (up from 6.9% in 2021), in the Central America and Mexico group of 2.5% (up from 5.7% in 2021) and Caribbean at 4.7%, excluding Guyana (4%). in the previous year).

Inflation

The ECLAC study also shows that the conflict in Ukraine has strengthened the upward dynamics of commodity prices they have already been introduced since the second half of 2020, bringing some of them to historical levels.

He noted that inflation continues to rise, averaging the region at 8.4% as of June 2022, more than double the average recorded during the 2005-2019 period.

At the sub-regional level, it is observed that in June 2022 the South American economy reported the highest inflation rate on average (8.8%), followed by Central America and Mexico (7.5%) and the Caribbean (7.3%).

“This has led to central banks raise policy rates and reduce monetary aggregates,” he said.

Finally, ECLAC forecasts a 7% decline in the terms of trade for key products.