Ukraine’s economic prospects are unclear and dependent on the course of war, the state of the energy system and international support, mentioned in the EBRD.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) worsens the prognosis of Ukraine’s true GDP growth to 2025 from 3.3%to 2.5%, but maintains the forecast for 2026 at the level of 5.0%, subject to the end of the war in Russia. This is stated in the EBRD economy report, published the day before.
“It is expected that Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow down to 2.5% in 2025 amid a high uncertainty related to the Russian war against the country,” the report said.
In general, in regions where EBRD operates, economic growth this year is predicted at 3.1% and its acceleration by 3.3% in 2026, while earlier growth is expected by 3.0% and 3.4%, respectively.
The EBRD’s note that Ukraine’s economic prospects are unclear and dependent on the course of war, the state of the energy system and international support.
“The government remains focused on macroeconomic discipline and structural reforms, trying to mobilize state revenues, increase investments, improve management of state businesses and strengthen the stability of the financial sector,” the bank believes.
The EBRR emphasizes that the real GDP has grown 0.9% in the annual calculus in the first quarter of 2025 thanks to the consumption and investment in critical important infrastructure, but the lack of labor, damage to the energy infrastructure and the vulnerable export of agricultural products continues to prevent economic growth.
The unemployment rate was reduced to a minimum war period by 12%, but the staff set remains difficult due to stirring and moving.
The lack of Ukraine’s current account grew nearly 50% in January-July, reflecting the high import of military and energy products and weak exports. It is hoped that the budget deficit will reach 22% of GDP in 2025, while external financing will be about $ 40 billion, a significant portion of it originated in the European Union, G7 (using revenue from frozen ownership of the Russian Federation) and IMF.
It is predicted that inflation remains high, due to food prices, utility and an increase in real wages, but gradually decreases: from 15.9% on May to 13.2% in August 2025.
The EBRD has recalled that the NBU has been holding its account at 15.5% since March 2025, trying to soften inflation, while foreign exchange reserves reached $ 46 billion in August, covering 5.5 months of importing and supporting exchange rate stability.
Remember that in the second quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s GDP grew 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. And compared to the second quarter of 2024, growth was recorded at 0.8%.
Earlier, the National Bank for the third time this year has worsened the forecast for GDP and inflation. Thus, the forecast of economic growth at 2.1% from 3.6% in April’s previous forecasts deteriorated, and inflation was up to 9.7% from 8.7%.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.