The restoration of the Ukrainian economy is slower than last year, and further recovery speed depends on the course of war, the regulator said.
The National Bank of Ukraine at the third time this year has worsened the forecast for GDP and inflation. It was reported on the regulator website on Thursday, July 24.
Thus, the NBU exacerbated the economic growth forecast by 2.1% from 3.6% in April’s previous forecasts, and inflation up to 9.7% from 8.7%.
“Economic restoration will be slower than last year – the real GDP will grow by 2.1% by 2025. The additional recovery speed depends on the course of war,” the report said.
It is noted that the NBU’s main scenario provides for a gradual restoration of normal conditions for economic functioning and GDP growth by 2-3% in 2026-2027.
“At the same time, in the case of rapidly normalizing conditions, private investments and consumption will significantly grow and compensate for the effects of rapid fiscal integration, and the GDP growth rate can be 3-3.5%,” the regulator believes.
As for inflation, the National Bank exacerbated the forecast of up to 9.7% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026, which is expected to return to the target only in 2027.
“Due to significant losses from the war and further shifts in the prices of the growing business costs, the degradation of the prophecy of yields and the effects of the actual weakening of hryvnia in the euro, the NBU has changed the forecasting of inflation to a slower decrease,” the regulator said.
The NBU believes that in the coming months, the dynamics of inflation depends more on the true influence of weather conditions on the volumes and prices of agricultural products.
According to preliminary estimates, in July, general inflation may grow slightly, but the main is continuously decreasing. In the future, inflation is expected to go to the trajectory of steady slowing down.
Remember that NBU is now the third time in a row has left the accounting rate at 15.5% per year. At the same time, the regulator promises to maintain strict financial conditions as needed to ensure a stable reduction in inflation to a 5%target.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.