Members of the financial policy committee suggest a return to avoiding the policy of interest in the second half of 2025, however, given the balance of risks, tends to take more careful steps than expected.
Members of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the National Bank are considering the availability of interest policy in the second half of 2025. However, they are currently inclined to more careful decisions than expected. The corresponding decision is unanimously supported by all 11 members of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee, the regulator service reports.
According to the regulator, spring inflation exceeds 15% in the annual terms and precedes the predicted trajectory, especially due to the influence of adverse weather conditions in the yield. At the same time, the primary inflationary pressure remains stable against the background of high consumer demand and business costs.
Participants of the meeting predict the continuation of a decrease in a discount rate rate after stabilizing prices and reducing the risk of long -term high inflation.
At the same time, most KMP members will not exclude the possibility of delaying rates due to current inflation trends and increased risks associated with war and adverse weather conditions affecting the yield.
“The NBU will have to hold the account at the current level longer and/or reduce it slower than expected April MacRO -Drift,” the committee believes.
Some discussion participants have added that in the event of risks to achieve the target inflation level, 5% of the NBU should be ready to tighten the financial policy.
At the same time, one of the members of the committee has been mentioned that, according to the results of the polls, most experts and non -Specialist will consider the current rate rate of discount sufficient to contain inflation and do not see the need to increase it.
Thus, maintaining the discount rate at the current level will not cause further inconvenience in financial markets, as banks adapt to current NBU incentives.
Financial analysts, according to the NBU, are largely expected to inflation by the end of 2026 will decrease by 6-7%. At the same time, the committee participants will not exclude that maintenance of the discount rate at the current level may be delayed, and its speed of reduction will be more modest than expected in April macrogenosis.
The next accounting rate review and NBU Macro -Prognosis update is scheduled for July. The regulator then plans to provide an answer if he is ready to return to avoiding the financial policy cycle in the second half of 2025.
Earlier, the NBU increased the discount rate three times in a row. The last increase of this was in March. Prior to this, the National Bank held it for six months to 13%, where it was reduced from 25% from July 2023 to seven stages. Meanwhile, in April, the NBU maintains the rate of discount at 15.5% each year.
The discount rate is equal to the cost of money to the economy. At this rate, the NBU provides funding to commercial banks, and they, the individual credits and legal creatures. Therefore, the discount rate affects the cost of credit resources. An increase in discount rates indicates an increase in inflation levels and decline in economic growth rate in the country.
News from CORRESPONDENT.NET On the telegram and whatsapp. Subscribe to our channels https://t.me/KorresPondentNet and WhatsApp
Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.