Members of the financial policy committee suggest a return to avoiding the policy of interest in the second half of 2025, however, given the balance of risks, tends to take more careful steps than expected.
The National Bank of Ukraine maintains an accounting rate at 15.5%, despite the peak inflation in May. The corresponding decision is unanimously supported by all 11 members of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee, the regulator’s press service informed.
According to the regulator, spring inflation exceeds 15% in the annual size and precedes the predicted trajectory, especially due to the influence of adverse weather conditions on the yield. At the same time, the primary inflationary pressure remains stable against the background of high consumer demand and business costs.
NBU expects a gradual reduction in inflationThat should start in June. According to most participants in the discussion, the May Inflation Surge is temporary. Its attenuation can provide new crops, a high level of international reserves, a stable situation in the foreign exchange market and an increase in hryvnia requests.
At the same time, the risks for prices remain increased – Among them is possible yield losses due to spring frosts and lack of rainfall, euro -related and hryvnia -related euros, as well as geopolitical uncertainty.
Financial analysts, according to the NBU, mainly maintain expectations that inflation will decrease to 6-7%by the end of 2026. At the same time Committee participants will not exclude that maintenance rate of discount on current level may be delayedWhile its reduction speed is more restrained than given in April Macro -drift.
The next accounting rate review and NBU Macro -Prognosis update is scheduled for July. The regulator then plans to provide an answer if he is ready to return to the financial policy ease cycle in the second half of 2025.
Earlier, the NBU increased the discount rate three times in a row. The last increase of this was in March. Prior to this, the National Bank held it for six months to 13%, where it was reduced from 25% from July 2023 to seven stages. Meanwhile, in April, the NBU maintains the rate of discount at 15.5% each year.
The discount rate is equal to the cost of money to the economy. At this rate, the NBU provides funding to commercial banks, and they, the individual credits and legal creatures. Therefore, the discount rate affects the cost of credit resources. An increase in discount rates indicates an increase in inflation levels and decline in economic growth rate in the country.
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Source: korrespondent
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