Conflicts in the world’s trade will add additional risks to the high uncertainty associated with the war, predict the EBRD.
The European Bank for Development and Reconstruction (EBRD) has changed the prognosis of Ukraine’s true GDP growth to 2025 to 3.3% from 3.5% and maintain the forecast for 2026 to 5.0%. This is stated in an EBRD report published on Tuesday, May 13.
“Global trade pressure, as well as the war, affects economic expectations for 2025. It is expected that Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow down by 3.3% in 2025, and recent global trade disputes will increase additional risks to high uncertainty related to the Russian war against the country,” the report said.
It has been mentioned that stable external financing from the European Union as part of the Ukraine facility program and receipts from frozen Russian times provided by G7 countries fully occupy the external and fiscal deficiencies in 2025, which supports Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability.
It is expected that a strong incentive through public consumption and increasing military acquisition of the domestic industry will support economic growth.
At the same time, the bank noted that since mid -2024 there has been a slowdown in economic growth and acceleration of inflation due to the influence of war in Russia.
The EBRD remembers that the growth of the real GDP in 2024 significantly slowed from more than 5.0% in the first half of the year to about 2.0% in the second half of the year, as a result of which the total indicator dropped to 2.9%. Among the factors are energy deficiency due to Russian attacks, a low yield and a chronic economic labor shortage caused by war needs.
“While agriculture, energy and trade were reduced, the other sectors showed a steady growth, despite difficult conditions and wars. The business showed stability and flexibility, which, accompanied by the increase of 2024 of the Black Sea Trade Corridor of Ukraine, which led to the export of exports after two years of two years of decline.
Note that in February, the EBRR exacerbated the GDP forecast for Ukraine this year from 4.7% to 3.5%.
The IMF then changed the forecasting of the Ukrainian economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5% compared to the previous forecast-to 2-3%, and the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%.
Finally, the NBU in April exacerbated the forecasting of the Ukrainian economic growth from 2025 to 3.1% from 3.6% in the previous macroeconomic forecast of January.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.