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NBU guessed how Trump’s duties would affect the Ukraine economy

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The end of the benefits established by the EU in 2022 for Ukrainian exports threatens Ukraine more than American duties.

The influence of the additional duties introduced by US President Donald Trump (10%for Ukraine) will have less negative impact on the Ukrainian economy in a short time than the end of the European Union’s benefits in 2022 for Ukrainian exports. This is stated in the inflation report for April 2025, published by the National Bank.

Ukrainian export volumes in the United States in 2024 only cost 2.2% ($ 0.9 billion) from the total export of goods. Its basis is formed by cast iron (42%of exports in the United States), pipes (13%) and individual food products (15.8%, mainly – oil, honey and juice). According to the NBU, exporting of metallurgy products does not undergo critical changes due to the relatively high part of cast iron imports in its consumption (about 20% in 2023).

However, the indirect influence of tariff wars on the Ukrainian economy will be stronger. First of all, due to slowing economic activity in Eurozone and Central and Eastern European countries, which will probably lead to decline in demand for Ukrainian products.

At the same time, this situation involves continuing the agreement with a restless trading regime with the EU in such or relatively close to previous version conditions.

Implementing the risk of concluding the agreement may have a noticeable negative impact on exporting Ukrainian goods, National Bank warning. Large losses can be avoided due to the possibilities of increasing supplies in African and Asian countries and the active development of new Ukrainian exporters market.

Currently, Ukraine and the EU are working on an updated trade regime, which should replace the autonomous trade preferences system.

Remember that European Commission leader Ursula Von der Lyain said the countries of the world were “lined up” to cooperate with reliable European trading partners after United States President Donald Trump introduced general tariffs.

US president announced a reduction in duties for China

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Source: korrespondent

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