The regulator upgraded its forecast for economic growth for the current year, despite power shortages and lower yields compared to last year.
The National Bank of Ukraine revised the main macroeconomic indicators for the current and subsequent years. This was reported on the regulator’s website on Thursday, July 25.
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So, according to the forecast of the NBU, the gross domestic product (GDP) this year will grow by 3.7%, and not 3%, as previously expected.
“Despite the energy shortage and lower yields compared to last year, the NBU slightly improved the economic growth forecast for this year – to 3.7%,” the report said.
This is due to better results in the first quarter and the expected expansion of budget incentives, as well as the development of distributed generation, with the support of large-scale lending programs.
At the same time, the GDP forecast for 2025 worsened – from 5.3% to 4.1%. In 2026, GDP will increase by 4.8% (previous forecast – 4.5%).
The National Bank also changed the price growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 for the worse: by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points (pp), respectively, to 8.5% and 6.6%.
“Price pressure will continue in the coming months due to further increases in business costs, higher excise tax, as well as the depletion effects of last year’s significant harvest and the negative impact of the summer drought on current yields,” the press release said. .
It was noted that preliminary estimates of inflation in July confirm further acceleration. The National Bank expects inflation to rise in the third quarter of this year to 7.9%.
According to the regulator’s forecasts, its growth will continue in the first quarter of 2025, when inflation will reach a maximum of 9.7%, after which it will begin to decline.
We remind you that in May, Ukraine’s GDP growth was 3.7% compared to May 2023. As a result, in the first five months of 2024, economic growth is estimated at 4.3%.
As it is known, in 2023 the GDP grew by 5.3% after decreasing by 28.8% in 2022. The said data was published by the State Statistics Service.
Source: korrespondent
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