The government predicts an economic slowdown

The main obstacle to economic development is the destruction of Ukraine’s energy capacities.

The Cabinet of Ministers in the Budget Declaration for 2025-2027 predicts a slowdown in economic growth in 2025. This was reported by the member of the Verkhovna Rada Finance Committee Yaroslav Zheleznyak in Telegram on Monday, July 1.

“The main obstacle to economic development is the destruction of Ukraine’s energy capacities, the restoration of which requires significant resources and time,” the declaration said.

According to the published document, the government expects GDP growth:

• in 2025 by 2.7%,

• in 2026 by 7.5%,

• in 2027 – by 6.2%.

Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 4.6% was included in the state budget for this year and has not changed.

In addition, the government expects the average dollar exchange rate to increase:

• in 2025 to 45 UAH (45.6 in December),

• in 2026 to 46.5 UAH (45.9 in December),

• in 2027 to 46.4 UAH. (46.2 in December).

The budget for 2024 includes an average exchange rate of 40.7 UAH/dollar and 42.1 UAH/dollar for December.

The Cabinet of Ministers also predicts consumer price increases (December to December):

• by 2025 by 9.5%

• in 2026 by 10.4%

• in 2027 – by 5.9%.

At the same time, the budget for 2024 includes inflation of 9.7%.

We remind you that in May, Ukraine’s GDP growth was 3.7% compared to May 2023. As a result, in the first five months of 2024, economic growth is estimated at 4.3%.

Previously, the National Bank worsened its forecast for GDP growth to 3% in 2024, but slightly improved expectations for the inflation rate.

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