Inflation will pick up slightly in the second half of the year as the effects of last year’s high yields wear off, the regulator predicts.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its expectations for the consumer price index in 2024 from 9.8% to 8.6%. The regulator’s leadership announced this at a monetary policy briefing on Thursday, January 25.
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The NBU also predicts that in 2025 prices will increase by 5.8% (previous forecast – 6.0%), in 2026 – by 5.0%.
At the same time, in the coming months, inflation will be in the target range of 5% ± 1%. P…
“From the middle of the year, it will accelerate somewhat as the effects of last year’s high yields wear off. In addition, prices will be put under pressure by further continuation of consumer demand, as also the transfer of business costs to consumer prices, especially given the still high security risks and wage increases,” – said the head of the NBU Andrey Pyshny.
However, inflation will remain moderate, including thanks to the NBU’s measures to ensure exchange rate stability and the attractiveness of hryvnia assets. It is expected to be 8.6% by the end of the year.
According to the NBU forecast, in 2025 inflation will return to the target range, slowing down to 5.8% by the end of the year, and in 2026 – to the target of 5%. This will primarily be facilitated by reducing security risks, which is allowed at the discretion of the regulator. This will ensure that everyone’s expectations are improved and logistics and production processes can be streamlined. The NBU’s interest rate and foreign exchange policy measures will remain a significant factor in reducing price pressure.
We remind you that according to the State Statistics Service, in 2023 the growth of consumer prices in Ukraine slowed down to 5.1%. This is the lowest level since 2020, when inflation was 5.0%.
Source: korrespondent
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