The increase in yield forecast is due to favorable weather and better yields, although the planted area is less than last year – almost 2 million hectares.
The potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine could reach 80.5 million tons, which is 3.7 million tons higher than the initial forecasts. This was announced by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) on Monday, September 4.
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It is indicated that the increase in the forecast for this year’s harvest is caused by favorable weather conditions and a better crop yield than expected, although less area was sown compared to last year – almost 2 million hectares.
The UGA improved its assessment of the wheat harvest from 20.2 to 22 million tons (in 2022 it was 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 it was a record 33 million tons). Potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 MY could reach around 16 million tons, taking into account transitional balances at the beginning of the season in the amount of 4.4 million tons.
The estimate of the barley harvest in 2023 has also increased – from 5.2 to 5.8 million tons (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons, in 2022 – 5.8 million tons). Potential exports in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at the level of 3 million tons.
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved from 26.9 to 28 million tons (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons, in 2022 – 27.3 million tons), while exports may reach around 22 million tons.
Sunflower harvest is expected to reach 13.9 million tons (in 2021 – 16.9 million tons, in 2022 – 11.1 million tons), and potential exports may reach 0.5 million tons. 2 million tons
The rapeseed harvest in 2023 is estimated at 4.1 million tons. At the same time, exports in MY 2023/2024 are expected to reach 4 million tons. 3 million tons
In general, according to UGA estimates, exports of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine in the new season of 2023/2024 may reach about 49 million tons. Last season (which ended June 30, 2023), according to the association, exports reached 58 million tons.
UGA said that such export volumes in the new season can be achieved if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports, as well as by improving and reducing the cost of logistics of alternative routes , including the route across the Danube.
At the same time, experts emphasize that if it is impossible to export products, Ukrainian farmers can reorient their production and refuse to plant grain. This will further exacerbate the crisis in the global food market in the medium term.
Recall that in early August, the UGA increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine by 7.8 million tons – up to 76.8 million tons. After a while, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy also significantly improved the forecast for the harvest.
Source: korrespondent
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