The situation in the energy sector is improving. Power supply disruptions are not expected until the end of the year.
The National Bank of Ukraine expects at least one additional percentage point of GDP growth in 2023. This was stated by the Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk, Forbes wrote.
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According to him, there is an improvement in the situation in the energy sector. The NBU does not predict interruptions in electricity supply until the end of the year, although drawing on the previous forecast, it is expected that the lack of capacities will remain for 2-3 quarters.
“Therefore, given the results of the first quarter, we expect at least one additional percentage point of economic growth this year,” said Nikolaychuk.
An increase in international aid could also allow the Cabinet to finance a larger budget deficit and provide an additional fiscal boost to the economy.
The deputy head of the NBU noted that the implementation of projects, financing and restoration can contribute to a faster economic recovery.
“This is one of the positive factors that we did not foresee in January, but it may have an impact on the forecast,” he said.
According to Nikolaychuk, the forecast should also take into account a possible improvement in the terms of trade due to lower oil and gas prices.
“Therefore, there is a high possibility that we will change our forecast in January onwards. The specific numbers will be at the end of April,” the deputy head of the National Bank emphasized.
Recall that the latest forecast of the NBU, published in January, provided for economic growth this year of 0.3%. The forecast worsened due to the consequences of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development significantly worsened the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 – from 8%, which was expected in September 2022, to only 1%.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.