All forecasts for this and next year are subject to serious downside risks in the event of expanding the scale of the war in Ukraine, stressed EBRD experts.
The fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 could be 30%, which is worse than the bank expected in March (a decrease of 20%). This forecast was published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on Tuesday, May 10th.
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At the same time, a significant rebound of Ukraine’s economy is expected in 2023 – an increase of 25% simultaneously (in March, the forecast for 2023 was assumed to be an increase of 23%), “but it assumes that significant restoration work had already begun at that time. “
The length of the battle, the extent of recovery and the number of refugees returning home will also influence the speed of recovery.
It also emphasizes that all forecasts for this year and next are subject to serious downside risks in the event of the expansion of war in Ukraine or a more limited flow of gas exports or other goods in Europe from Russia.
At the same time, the EBRD maintains its forecast for Russia’s GDP decline to 10% at the same level, and predicts zero dynamics in 2023.
Belarus’s GDP, according to the EBRD forecast, will decline by 4% in 2022 (in March, the bank predicted a decline of 3%), in 2023, zero economic dynamics are expected.
Note that the IMF predicts Ukraine’s GDP decline this year by 35%. And the Cabinet expects that the collapse could be up to 50%.
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Source: korrespondent
