It is impossible to avoid rising prices, and inflation could exceed 20% by the end of the year, Kirill Shevchenko said.
In April, inflation rose to 15.9%, and by the end of the year it could exceed 20%. This forecast was voiced by the head of the National Bank Kirill Shevchenko in a column for NV.Business.
“In a war, it is impossible to avoid price increases … by the end of this year (inflation) could exceed 20%. This is a significant level of price growth, but controlled. And such indicators are not comparable in 2015, when inflation reaches 60% in their month, ”he said. is he.
At the same time, Shevchenko stressed that the NBU has significant experience in the fight against inflation and there are no cases in world history “when a country enters a state of war, having a very good financial system and policy financially. “
The head of the National Bank pointed out that while market mechanisms will have a limited impact on the market, the regulator will maintain price growth by adjusting the exchange rate and maintaining part of the restrictions.
“But once the money delivery channels start to work and the uncertainty subsides, we will return to the inflation-targeting regime, which at one time helped to overcome the same 60% inflation,” Shevchenko said. .
According to him, the National Bank will gradually reverse the forecast cycle and start applying the discount rate again to reduce inflation to 5% and keep inflation expectations under control.
Recall, according to the State Statistics Service, consumer price growth in March accelerated to 4.5% from 1.6% in February, 1.3% – in January and 0.6% – in December last year.
As a result of March, annual inflation rose to 13.7% from 10.7% in February and 10% in January.
Source: korrespondent
