ISW explains why Russia is pushing Belarus into war

If Belarus gets involved in a war with Ukraine, the Kremlin will strengthen its control over Minsk. About this on Sunday, December 11, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote.

They also noted that both Lukashenka and Putin often create informative occasions to talk about a possible attack on Ukraine by Belarus. According to analysts, the purpose of these efforts is to pinch the Ukrainian forces near the Belarusian border so that they cannot strengthen the front operations.

“It is unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future, regardless of the course of these information operations,” experts said.

Experts note that Russia seeks to create a permanent military base in Belarus and exercise direct control over the Belarusian armed forces. Today, Belarus’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is reducing its armed forces’ ability to conduct its own conventional military operations.

“Belarus is reducing its stockpile of artillery by transferring ammunition to the Russian military. Going forward, the Belarusian armed forces will likely face limitations in their ability to train existing and new personnel due to their supporting role in Russia’s efforts to build up its armed forces,” experts predict.

They also believe that Lukashenka’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is causing friction in the Belarusian armed forces. They know about the significant losses suffered by Russian troops in Ukraine, and they probably don’t want to die.

Recall that the ruling regime of the Republic of Belarus planned to introduce the death penalty for officers and soldiers for “high treason.”