War in Ukraine revives fears of nuclear conflict

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises fears nuclear wara possibility that has long been considered remote, despite the deterioration over the years of the fragile international security architecture that emerged after World War II.

Vague threats by Russian President Vladimir Putin that he might use a bomb nuclear if their ambitions did not materialize Ukraineput an end to the tacit agreement based on moderation and shook the concept of deterrence.

“For the first time since the beginning of the atomic age, a nuclear power took advantage of its status and fought a conventional war under the long shadow” of its capabilities. nuclearsummarizes former Deputy Secretary General of NATO Camille Grand.

The former French official explained that the novelty was that “one of the two major nuclear powers and a member of the UN Security Council (…) behaves like a ‘strategic pirate'” but considered it “unlikely” that Russia use a nuclear bomb.

“Taboo” nuclear”, the moral and strategic concept of not using these weapons, was forged after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 and, although it still holds, the rhetorical dam around it has cracked.

Thus, in 2022, Russian TV channels mentioned the scene of nuclear attacks on Paris and New York, and a former Russian diplomat even stated that if Putin thinks that Russia threatened with extinction, he “presses the button”.

Along with the return of war to Europe and the tightening of international relations, the situation represents a violent awakening of democracies that have long lived off “peace dividends”.

US President Joe Biden even warned in October of a possible nuclear “Armageddon,” illustrating the widespread feeling that the world is on the brink.

end of treaties

In October 1962, after fifteen years of the Cold War, the world was already on the brink of conflict. nuclear with the discovery of the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba, which led to a terrifying 13-day standoff between Washington and Moscow.

The Cuban Missile Crisis is an example of the delicate balance that has reigned in the world since 1945, summed up in 2007 by Nobel Laureate in Economics Thomas Schelling: “The most spectacular event of the last fifty years is the event that didn’t happen.”

long before Ukrainethe international strategic framework has been cracking for years in Europe, but above all in Asia and the Middle East. Historian and non-proliferation expert Benjamin Otcouverture places its beginnings in the 2000s.

In 2002, the United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty, which banned ballistic missiles. His departure from this cornerstone of the nuclear balance with the USSR marked the beginning of the collapse of control or disarmament treaties signed between historical rivals.

Among them is the landmark INF Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, signed in 1987 and became a dead letter in 2019 due to the withdrawal of the United States and then Russia.

“The field of disarmament is a field in ruins, except for New START,” the only agreement that continues to unite Washington and Moscow, says Camille Grand.

Iran and North Korea

Unilateral withdrawal in 2003 of North Korea from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Nuclear (NPT) is another example of a growing threat.

Pyongyang also fired a record number of rounds in November, and Washington, Seoul and Tokyo expect it to conduct another nuclear test soon.

The new North Korean doctrine, released in September, stipulates that it will never give up a nuclear bomb and provides for its use for preventive purposes.

“We’re going to see a very dangerous crisis in Asia,” Chung Ming Lee, a Carnegie fellow, warned at a recent event in Paris, where he highlighted the region’s non-nuclear nations’ concerns about the reliability of the US umbrella.

Added to this is the rapid build-up of China’s nuclear potential, which causes concern among experts.

The Pentagon estimates that China could have 1,000 nuclear warheads within 10 years, approaching the number deployed by the Americans.

In the Middle East, concern is focused on Iran. For 20 years, Tehran has been suspected of wanting to build an atomic bomb, and is close to becoming a “threshold state,” if not already.

Negotiations between Iran and the great powers to revive a 2015 deal that called for the lifting of sanctions in exchange for Tehran’s drastic curtailment of its agenda nuclearstalled, and the internal situation makes it unlikely to resume.

Distribution risks

What is the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a key factor in international security?

Russia blocked in August a joint declaration by 191 treaty signatories explaining the changes that were taking place.

“We are seeing a turning point in Russiawhich has historically supported the NPT,” a French diplomatic source said, denouncing Russia’s “extremely aggressive nuclear rhetoric.”

The source also highlighted China’s harsh criticism of AUKUS, an Indo-Pacific military alliance between the US, Australia and the UK that provides for the supply of nuclear submarines to Canberra.

The risk of rapid proliferation is more acute than ever, as a country without nuclear weapons Ukrainewas captured by his neighbor.

According to Jean-Louis Lozier, former chief of nuclear forces at the French Army General Staff, “Japan or South Korea can now legally consider” the presence of the atomic bomb, as well as “Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt in the Middle East.” .

Currently, nine states possess a nuclear bomb: five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, RussiaChina, France and the UK, as well as Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea.

None of these nuclear powers supported the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, adopted in 2017 with the support of most Latin American countries.

(According to AFP)

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