The Russian authorities noticed a decrease in public support for the war against the backdrop of constant defeats at the front and mobilization.
The results of the latest closed opinion poll conducted by the federal security service of the FSO (such studies are commissioned by the Kremlin and for internal use only) have come into the possession of the Russian edition of Meduza. According to these data, about 55% of Russians are now in favor of peace negotiations with Ukraine, and only 25% are in favor of continuing the war.
These figures are in general agreement with the results of an October survey by the Levada Center, the only major independent sociological center in Russia. In Levada’s report, 57% of the respondents were in favor or rather for peace talks; “for” and “rather” the continuation of hostilities – 27%.
At the same time, judging by the closed opinion poll of the FSO, the attitude of Russians to the war has deteriorated sharply in recent times. Back in July 2022, polls showed that only 30% of Russians were in favor of peace with Ukraine.
According to two Meduza sources close to the presidential administration (AP), for this reason, the Russian authorities plan to limit the number of open polls in relation to Russians before the war (previously, for example, they were regularly conducted by the state social center).
Levada Center Director Denis Volkov, in a conversation with Meduza, points out that the number of Russians in favor of negotiations with Ukraine began to grow rapidly after the announcement of mobilization on September 21.
This is the unwillingness of citizens to personally participate in hostilities. Their support for hostilities remains high, but people’s desire to personally participate in this is rather low.
In addition, support from the very beginning was declarative against the background of the fact that people perceived it as something that did not concern them – “life goes on and even gets better.” So far, the risks have grown and people want the negotiations to start already. At the same time, for now, the majority still leave it at the mercy of the authorities: “We would like to, but they will decide,” Volkov said.
Sociologist Grigory Yudin, in a conversation with Meduza, also linked the growth in the number of supporters of negotiations with mobilization. According to him, in the fall, the Russians were faced with “the destruction of everyday life and a sense of danger.” Another argument for the Russians in favor of negotiations, Yudin considers “the loss of faith in victory due to defeats at the front and the lack of a convincing theory of how exactly Russia will win.”
At the same time, I would not be surprised if this is combined with a keen sense of danger to the country. In the sense that negotiations [наступна] legalization of annexation [нових
українських територій] should secure the country,” he added.
According to Yudin, such dissatisfaction with the course of the war can be called rather “apathetic.” He did not rule out the possibility of anti-war protests:
Russia’s protest potential is already very high. When opportunities arise, there will be protests. It is possible that the wait is not so long.
According to Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, the authorities themselves do not really believe that mass anti-war demonstrations will unfold in Russia in the near future. However, the interlocutors admit that now it is better not to heat up the situation and not to annoy people once again. The state and pro-government media allegedly received recommendations to “not pedal the topic of war” and focus on a more “positive order”.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.